U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREST SERVICE
WILLIAM B. GREKLEY. FORESTER
TIMBER DEPLETION, LUMBER PRICES, LUMBER
EXPORTS, AND CONCENTRATION OF
TIMBER OWNERSHIP
REPORT UN SENATE RESOLUTION 311
By
THE FOREST SERVICE U S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
JUNE 1, 1920
WASHINGTON
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1B20
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FOREST SERVICE WILLIAM B. GREELEY, FORESTER
TIMBER DEPLETION, LUMBER PRICES, LUMBER
EXPORTS, AND CONCENTRATION OF
TIMBER OWNERSHIP
REPORT ON SENATE RESOLUTION 311
By
THE FOREST SERVICE U S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
JUNE 1, 1920
WASHINGTON
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1920
.
4. ,. , TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
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lack of freight cars', ahii bad weather in important producing regions, to respond rapidly with increased production. Aside from the genera! causes affecting prices of most commodities, the expansion of credit accompanied by currency inflation and the wave of speculation and extravagance, an "auction" lumber market would no doubt have resulted from the frenzied competition of buyers to obtain the limited stocks available, wholly inadequate to satisfy current demands.
Under the combined influence of the general conditions making for high prices and this situation in the lumber industry itself, prices rose to unprecedented limits. In March, 1920, average mill prices in the South and West had increased 300 per cent and more over the prices received in 1914, and average retail prices in the Middle West showed increases ranging from 150 to 200 per cent. In the case oi high quality hardwoods and other specialized products, the average advance in eastern wholesale markets was from 200 to 250 per cent, and the demand at this advance was still unsatisfied.
The timber market has been more unstable than ever before in our history. Many industries have been unable to secure their supplies of timber at any price. The output of certain entire industries has been reduced as much as 50 per cent. Middlemen and manufacturers of wooden commodities have been able to pass on to the consumer and even augment any price they might pay. Necessities have fared worse than luxuries. The ramifications of lumber shortages and high prices are limitless and have affected seriously practically our entire population.
Obviously these lumber prices bear no relation to the cost of production and distribution. While the costs of production in the lumber industry have at least doubled as compared with 1916, lumber prices have much more than doubled and have become wholly disproportionate to operating costs. Excessive profits have been made by the industry. The division of these profits between manufacture and distri- bution has varied in accordance with circumstances and the ability of the various elements in the industry to dominate the situation That prices have been too high is recognized by the best thought in the industry, and some manufacturers have sought to stabilize the market.
The depletion of timber in the United States has not been the only cause of these excessive prices on forest products, but has been an important contributing cause. It has led to the migration of both the softwood and hardwood lumber industries from region to region and each is now cutting heavily into its last reserves. The exhaustion of timber in near-by forest regions has compelled many large lumber consuming centers to import their supplies from greater and greater distances. The wholesale prices on upper grades of softwood lumber in New York were from $20 to $25 per thousand prior to 1865 when mills in the sam« State supplied this market, from $35 to $45 between 1865 and 1917 when most of the supply came from the Lake States and the South, and are now entering a general level of $130 a thousanc feet with a large part of the material coming from the Pacific coast. In the Middle West, the building grades of white pine lumber cut in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, retailed at $15 to $20 per thousand feet prior to 1900. As lumber from the Lake States became exhausted and southern pine took over this market, the retail prices rose to a level of $25 to $35 per thousand feet. The replacement o southern pine by West Coast timbers now in progress is initiating a new price level of about $80 to $85 per thousand feet. The increasec cost of transportation is but one factor in these new price levels, but it is an important one. The freight bill on the average thousand feet of lumber used in the United States is steadily increasing as the sawmills get farther and farther away from the bulk of the lumber users Much information is available to show the disadvantages of the lumber consumer in regions whose near-by forests have been exhausted Retail prices in the Ohio Valley, for example, on certain grades exceed retail prices on the identical grades in Oregon in some instances by as much as $50 per thousand board feet after allowing for all transportation costs. The curtailment of lumber output in the eastern regions not only has compelled the average consumer to pay more for freight but has enhanced the effects of congestion in transportation and of climatic and other factors limiting the production in regions which still support a large lumber industry. It has restricted oppor tunity for competition and thereby increased the opportunity of the lumber manufacturer or dealer to auction his stocks for higher prices In other words, the effects of forest depletion can not be measured in terms of the total quantity of timber remaining. Its injury is felt particularly through the steady process of regional exhaustion. Our remaining timber is so localized that its availability to the average user of wood is greatly reduced. Particularly does such a restricted location of the timber supplies assume a serious national aspect in the face of transportation congestion and inadequate transportation facilities such as the United States is now experiencing. Had the forests and forest industries of the Eastern States still existed, the opportunities for regional competition in supplying the lumber markets and the wider distribution of lumber transport undoubtedly would have afforded a curb upon rising prices which did not exist in 1919.
The export trade in lumber does not have a serious bearing upon timber depletion from the standpoint of quantity, but does have an important bearing upon the duration of our limited supply of high-grade timber, particularly of hardwoods. The exports of high-grade oak, walnut, hickory, ash, and other woods essential to many industries in the United States which now seem probable will further enhance the shortage of such products for the domestic market and the tendencies already evident toward sustained high prices. On the other hand, the United States imports from Canada about two-thirds of its total consumption of newsprint or newsprint materials. The effects of our export trade in lumber should be considered from the standpoint of the specific timber grades or products whose depletion is most imminent and threatening to American industries.
The concentration of timber ownership has not changed materially since the exhaustive report made upon this subject by the Bureau of Corporations in 1910. One-half of the privately owned timber in the United States is held by approximately 250 large owners, the ownership of the remaining timber being very widely distributed. The tendency toward the acquisition and speculative holding of timber beyond operating requirements has been checked, and the present tendency is toward the manufacture of large timber holdings. At the same time the lumber industry, particularly in the Western States, is going through a partial reorganization into larger operating anc marketing groups. In this there is a tendency for small mills to disappear and small timber holdings to be blocked iiito larger ones- adapted to extensive lumber manufacture. While there is still a large number of individual timber owners and of sawmills operating as separate units, the larger interests are acquiring a more dominant place in lumber manufacture in the West. It is to be expectec that these large interests or groups will maintain, as time goes on, a fairly constant supply of timber for their manufacturing plants by acquiring smaller holdings. No information is at hand which would justify a conclusion that monopolistic conditions on any genera scale have grown out of this situation. There are many instances to the contrary. On the other hand, the degree of control of the timbei remaining in the United States exercised by a comparatively small number of large interests will steadily increase as timber depletion continues, approaching a natural monopoly in character, and this control will extend particularly to the diminishing supply of high- grade material.
In 1918 our per capita consumption of lumber was about 300 board feet. The homes and industries of the United States require at least 35 billion feet of lumber yearly, aside from enormous quamtities of paper and other products of the forest. A reduction in the current supply of lumber below this figure would seriously curtail our economic development. Appreciable increases in lumber imports are not possible except at excessive prices. We can not afford to cut our per capita use of lumber to one-half or one-third the present amount—
TIMBEK DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP. 0
to the level of European countries where lumber is an imported luxury. We must produce the great bulk of the timber which we need ourselves and we have the resources for doing so.
The solution of the problem presented by forest depletion in the United States is a national policy of reforestation. Increased and widely distributed production of wood is the most effective attack upon excessive prices and monopolistic tendencies. Depletion has not resulted from the use of forests but from their devastation, from our failure, while drawing upon our reservoirs of virgin timber to also use our timber-growing land. If our enormous areas of forest growing land, now idle or largely idle, which are not required for any other economic use, can be restored to timber growth, a future supply of forest products adequate in the main to the needs of the country will be assured.
I therefore most earnestly request your consideration of the practical measures proposed in the accompanying report for putting a stop to forest devastation and restoring our idle land to timber production. I would emphasize especially the immediate urgency of legislation (1) which will permit effective cooperation between the Federal Government and the several States in preventing forest fires and growing timber on cvit-over lands, and (2) which will greatly extend the National Forests. Enlargement of the National Forests offers immediate relief. On these punlicly administered areas high quality timber can be grown and utilized to the maximum advantage; regrowth will follow cutting; and, under the regulations of the Forest Service, the disposal of timber will foster competitive conditions in the lumber industry. These steps are the foundation of an effective national policy for insuring a permanent and adequate supply of timber.
Concurrently with these measures, a comprehensive survey of the forest resources of the United States should be made.
Respectfully yours,
E. T. MEREDITH, Secretary.
JUNE 1, 1920. The honorable the SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE.
SIR: I transmit herewith a report on forest depletion and related questions which has been prepared by the Forest Service in response to Senate resolution 311. The existing quantities and current growth of a resource so great in extent and so widely distributed as wood can not be stated in exact terms. To obtain strictly accurate and final data on these subjects would require an exhaustive field study covering at least two years. In order, however, to present the situation as clearly and concretely as possible, 1 have felt it desirable to use the best quantitative data available, recognizing that much of it is but tentative or approximate in character.
A large number of men in the Forest Service have participated in assembling and compilation; but the report is principally the work of Assistant Forester Earle H. Clapp, in charge of the Branch of Research.
Respectfully, W. B. GREELEY, Forester.
TIMBER DEPLETION, LUMBER PRICES, LUMBER EXPORTS, AND CONCENTRA- TION OF TIMBER OWNERSHIP.
REPORT ON SENATE RESOLUTION 311.
Tlu> following report is submitted in compliance with Senate resolution 311 (ti(itli Cong., 2d sess.), introduced by Senator Capper and considered and agreed to by the Senate on Febru- ary 21, 1920. The resolution provides:
Whereas it has been reported that the forest resources of the 1'nited States are being rapidly depleted, and that the situa- tion is already serious and will soon become critical; and Whereas these alleged facts are either largely unknown to the public or are in dispute: Therefore be it
Resolved, That the Secretary of Agriculture be, and he is hereby, directed to report to the Senate on or before June 1, 1920, on the following matters, using what information the For- est Service now has available, or what may be obtained readily with its existing organization:
1. The facts as to the depletion of timber, pulp wood, and other forest resources in the United States.
2. Whether, and to what extent, this affects the present high cost of materials.
3. Whether the export of lumber, especially of hardwoods, jeopardizes our domestic industries.
4. Whether this reported depletion tends to increase the con- centration of ownership in timberlnnds and the manufacture of lumber, and to what extent ; and if such concentration exists, how it affects or may affect the public welfare.
A comprehensive and fully adequate report on these matters would require an exhaustive survey of the forest resources of the country, their ownership, the industries dependent on them, and the general related economic conditions. No such survey has ever been made. Nevertheless, data already available or secured throw much light on the subjects of inquiry.
Depletion and the effect of depletion on prices are so interre- lated that sections 1 and 2 of the resolution are considered together.
EFFECTS OF SCARCITY AND HIGH PRICES OF FOREST PRODUCTS UPON REPRESENTA- TIVE INDUSTRIES.
To illustrate the general situation, the salient facts regard- ing a few representative industries are first presented. They are chosen because of the extent of their raw material demands, their basic character industrially, and the way In which they touch, directly or indirectly, the life of our entire population. They are: (Jeneral building and construction, farming, the railroads, the furniture, veneer, handle, vehicle, and agricul- tural Implement industries, and the newspapers.
A shortage in housing accommodations that is almost world- wide has brought home vividly the close relation of building lo the comfort, health, and general welfare of the public. When I'm- any reason construction falls below normal, overcrowding, high rents, lowered standards of living, and other evils follow. Therefore first place will be given to a discussion of conditions iu the general building and construction industry.
GENERAL BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION.
More lumber is used in the United States for general building ami construction than for any other purpose. In normal years probably 28 billion board feet is used in this way out of an average annual cut of 40 billion.
For the five years before the war, 1910-14, the average annual building bill of the country shown by building permits was approximately $670,000,000. After dropping to $445,549,493 in 191S, it rose In 1919 to $1,326,936,702; but with building costs iti'Teascd 100 per cent or more, actual construction did not much, if any, exceed the prewar average. Apparently all con- struction work in the United States is behind requirements, but the deficit is greatest in dwelling houses.
The building permits issued in 21 cities of various sizes widely distributed over the country show that, in values, housing con- struction formed 36 per cent of all building in 1913, 21 per cent in 1918, and 27 per cent In 1919. Housing construction in 1913 was exceeded in 1918 in only two of the 21 cities, and in 1919 In only 6. in spite of the " build-a-home " campaign. The falling off in house construction generally appears to have been par-
ticularly marked since the latter part of 1919, when the greatest upward movement of lumber prices began.
The United States Housing Corporation states that normally 80 per cent of the number of buildings constructed are dwellings ; that in 1919 dwellings were only 15 per cent; that 1,000,000 families in the United States desired houses even before the war ; that the shortage has since increased very rapidly ; that there were but 70,000 houses built in 1919, when to have met the requirements there should have been 500,000 ; and that in 1890 an average of 110J families occupied 100 homes, but to-day 121 families occupy 100 homes. The construction of houses in 1918 was less than in 1919.
A part of the reason for delayed house construction, particu- larly in the latter part of 1919 and in 1920, is abnormally high lumber prices. The Pittsburgh home builder of 1913 paid $27 per thousand board feet for his No. 1 common dimension 2 by 4 framing $72 in 1920. Sheathing lumber, No. 2 common yel- low pine, cost him $26 in 1913 and $80 in 1920. Yellow-pine ^finishing lumber increased from $42 to $140. If he used plain oak finish instead of southern pine, he paid $85 in 1913 and $260 in 1920. Yellow-pine siding rose from $36 to $120. B and better flat-grain flooring from $38 to $142. Plain oak flooring cost in 1913 $70 per thousand feet and in 1920 $290, and quartered oak rose in the same period from $102 to $352.
The total cost of houses has increased proportionately. A frame house built in Washington, D. C., in 1917 for $6.250 is now being duplicated from original plans at a cost of $12,25(1. A St. Paul architect reports that a house was built for $4,240 in 1915, not including plumbing, heating, and wiring, and that a house built from the same plans in October, 1919, cost $7,724, while for identical plans in February, 1920, the cost rose to $11,820, or 179 per cent over the 1915 price. The lumber and mill work costs in 1920 were $5,039, or $799 more than the total cost of the house in 1915. All of the items Increased in 1920 over 1915, but with the exception of an insignificant item for a bond the percentage increases for lumber (304 per cent) and millwork (222 per cent) were the highest, On a six-room frame
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TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
house built in Washington, D. C., for $4,771.60 in 1913 bids on identical plans in May, 1920, total $11,465.50.
The lumber for a ready-cut, one-story, five-room house which was listed at $883 in 1915 had been raised to $3,272 in April, 1920, a total increase of 270 per cent. Another company dealing in ready-cut houses listed the material for a two-story seven- room house at $1,995 in 1915 and now lists it at $5,606.90, an increase of 181 per cent.
Lumber prices alone do not tell the whole story. The person who builds a house faces a series of difficulties in securing his materials ; delays, many of which enter materially into increas- ing costs ; many of the grades desired, particularly the better grades, can not be secured easily, sometimes not at all. Very often the lumber secured is not properly dried and compara- tively inferior and unsatisfactory construction results. This situation, combined with delays in securing materials, labor difficulties, etc., makes the construction of a dwelling house a highly uncertain and speculative venture, takes it entirely out of the reach of large numbers of people, and leads to a gradual lowering of standards of living. Classes of industrial construc- tion which can go forward regardless of uncertainties and costs are able to pay lumber prices which the ordinary home builder can not afford and increase the element of specula- tion in the business of building houses for sale or rental.
FARMING.
Farms consume a very large aggregate of construction lum- ber. Cheap high-grade building material aided powerfully in the rapid development of farm lands. The Middle West, for example, was built up largely with the output of white pine lumber from the Lake States. In the eighties first quality white pine lumber such as can now hardly be found in any market in the United States commonly retailed throughout the Middle West for $15 to $20 per thousand feet. In February, 1920, the farmer in Kansas paid $70 per thousand for yellow pine framing and about the same for Douglas fir. For No. 2 common lumber suitable for temporary sheds and rough construction, either fir or southern pine, he paid $72.50. B and better yellow pine finishing lumber for house construction cost $147.50. Silo stock cost $185.
To ascertain the effect of present lumber prices and short- ages upon the farming industry, questionnaires were sent to a large number of agricultural county agents employed coopera- tively by the Federal Government and the States in 33 States lying east of the Rocky Mountains, and similar questionnaires were also sent to a large number of retail lumber dealers sup- plying country trade in seven Middle Western States.
County agents throughout practically this entire territory re- port a marked suspension in new construction and even in farm, improvements and repairs requiring lumber. Out of some 250 counties in 32 States only about half a dozen agents reported more building than in the past. New building is reported as going on normally or in excess of normal in only 10 out of every 100 counties, and this in regions of exceptional pros- perity. In the Prairie States, from Illinois north and west, re- pairs are reported by lumber dealers as deferred to an extent of about 32 per cent, and new construction as somewhat less than 50 per cent of normal. The average yearly amounts of lumber sold per yard in farming districts of Nebraska and Kansas were slightly more in 1919 than in 1917 or 1918, but be- low the prewar average of 1910 to 1915. The widespread de- ferment of building is almost uniformly laid to a combination of high lumber prices and shortages of labor.
Lumber dealers for several of the Middle Western States report lumber stocks on hand as above normal. This is to guard against delayed shipments, to be able to supply antici- pated increase in demands, etc. Apparently throughout much of the region covered supplies could usually be secured in the
desired amount and quality if prices could be paid. Locally, however, the pronounced changes in lumber distribution of the past year have apparently made it difficult to secure desired materials and qualities without delay. The difficulties were greater with the better grades Hum with common lumber, and they occurred even in the heart of the manufacturing district in the South, because of excessive demands and competition for this class of material.
An attempt was made also to get at normal and probable future lumber requirements of the fanning industry. The esti- mates of county agents indicate an average annual utilization per farm unit of about 2,000 board feet. For practically the entire region covered an increased future demand for lumber is predicted in order to take care of improvements looking toward better equipment and improved living conditions, provi- sion for increasing population, and the development of new farm units. This is important, in the face of falling lumber production in all parts of the country except the extreme West.
Eighty per cent of the county agents report that the ex- tremely high prices of lumber are placing a handicap on farm development and the production of crops and live stock. The most serious effect reported appears to prevail throughout the sparsely timbered regions, where in cases of emergency the farmer is not able to secure supplies from the farm woodland. Live-stock raising and dairying seem to be the hardest hit, because of the large barn equipment and shelter necessary. It is reported that heavy losses of implements and crops are re- sulting from lack of proper storage facilities. In some of the newer sections it is even reported that farmers who have not yet reached a stable financial basis are leaving the land because of the cost of new construction. It is reported from all parts of the territory covered that present conditions are tending to lower the standards of living and to make it more difficult to hold on the farm the farmer's own children and desirable classes of labor.
THE RAILROADS.
The normal demand for railroad ties is somewhere between 100 million and 125 million annually. In 1918, however, pur- chases were slightly under 77,500,000 and in 10 months of 1919 were slightly over 84,500,000. During the war and the period of Government supervision of the railroads extensions could not be made, and improvements were necessarily confined to those of an urgent character. Lumber purchases were therefore at a minimum. Even under such a policy of retrenchment rail- road purchases of sawed materials, excluding hewn railroad ties, telephone poles, etc., aggregated approximately 4j billion feet, or 14 per cent of the total lumber cut of the country for 1918.
That there have been profound changes in the lumber dis- tribution from different regions during the past year is shown by the invasion of the Middle Western and Eastern States by Douglas fir ties. These are regions which in the past have been supplied with the standard oak tie cut immediately along the rights of way or with southern pine ties from the South. During 1919 orders amounting to nearly 100,000,000 board feet were placed for Douglas fir ties for eastern roads because of the uncertainty of securing adequate supplies along their rights of way and because of the excessive costs of local ties. Doug- las fir ties are now said to be costing eastern roads from $1.75 to $2 each at their treating plants or on their rights of way. In other words, oak ties cut within a few miles 4f the right of way and bearing practically no charge in freight and south- ern pine ties are now being replaced by fir ties hauled overland across the continent or shipped through the Panama Canal.
To supply their general lumber requirements the railroads have obvious advantages in the purchase of lumber from mills along their lines, and increases in prices have been far less
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
9
pronounced than for other industries. During the last four years, however, the cost of lumber purchased has almost doubled, while the amounts have been reduced. Under the ure.-tt tinancial burdens of readjustment and reconstruction following thi> war added costs of any important material delay even the most needed repairs and betterments and add to trans- portation ditlicultles, which react upon all industries and con- sumers, rncertainty as to securing adequate supplies of de- sired materials at the time wanted has made it necessary for railroad companies in general to hold comparatively large sur- pluses, a tendency which serves to accentuate shortage for all purchasing industries. Railroads operating in the forest re- gions ordinarily carried a few years ago but from one to two weeks' supplies, since slocks could be replenished quickly. other roads carried stocks sufficient to last several months. The limber roads are now carrying from 6 to 10 weeks' sup- plies and other roads sufficient to last from G to 9 months.
THE FURNITURE INDUSTRY.
The furniture industry is one of a group of industries which utilize mainly high-grade hardwoods and have had much the same history. They began in the Northeast, where for many years the local supplies were ample for their needs. The waning of these supplies forced the industries westward, where they rapidly expanded in the last quarter of the nineteenth century, drawing mainly on the magnificent virgin hardwood forests of the Middle West. Within the last 15 or 20 years they have been forced to turn more and more from the depleted and vanishing stands of the States along the Ohio to the timber northward and southward. Their present sources of supply are very largely the remoter and more Inaccessible portions of the Southern Appalachians and the lower Mississippi Valley. When these forests are cut out the industries will have ex- hausted practically their last large resources of old-growth timber.
liesides furniture the group includes the veneer, handle, vehicle, and agricultural-Implement Industries. These all com- pete among themselves for raw material.
Before the end of the summer of 1919 the demand for furni- ture had assumed such proportions that the normal production of the large factories during the current season had been almost wholly contracted for, with many retailers uncared for. The immediate result was a corresponding demand for lumber on the part of the furniture-manufacturing industry, which nor- mally uses about 1J billion feet, and Is the largest consumer of high-grade hardwood timber In the United States. Hardwood lumber stocks following the war were low and have since gone to as low as half the normal ; production has fluctuated down- \\ard to a minimum, in some districts of as low as 50 per cent of normal, so that it has been the practically universal ex- perience of furniture manufacturers that desired supplies of raw material could be secured only with the greatest difficulty, particularly during the past six months.
The veneer situation has been equally bad ; orders for sawn oak veneers are said to be 100 per cent greater than stocks, and sliced and rotary veneer equally difficult to secure. For this and other reasons production of furniture, in the face of unprecedented demands, is from 15 to 25 per cent below normal, and many factories face shut downs because of in- ability to secure raw materials. Individual furniture manu- facturers bid against each other for the inadequate supplies of lumber and veneer available, while their industry competes with the automobile, musical instrument, and other manufac- turers similarly situated. The only factories which are not having serious trouble in getting wood supplies seem to be the small plants which can get local timber and which make com- paratively low-grade furniture.
Difficulties have been aggravated by lack of facilities in both the lumber and the furniture industries for artificial drying of 186212— 20— -2
wood. In prewar practice hardwood lumber was ordinarily air seasoned for six to nine months before sale. Furniture dealers are now purchasing material practically green from the saw, involving heavy additional freight charges. While the uncertainty as to securing material and the need for a long drying period justify the carrying of larger stocks at the factory, it is reported that furniture manufacturers have on the average only about one-half of the stocks carried before the war. Supplies have been so limited and uncertain that lumber- men have refused to take contracts for their output at any specified price and have even refused to give buyers an option on any stated amount of lumber at market prices on delivery. Competition has become so keen that buyers have been ordered to secure lumber almost regardless of price.
Naturally prices have jumped under such competition. While there has been an increase during the past four years in prac- lically every item entering into furniture production, the larg- est increase has been in the cost of lumber. Roughly, lumber costs increased about 200 per cent during the year 1919, and a total of 300 per cent since before the war. Something like 75 or 80 per cent of the raw material for furniture manufacture is lumber or plywood. Average prices paid by furniture fac- tories on No. 1 common 4/4 red gum were in January, 1916, approximately $27.50 per thousand board feet; in April, 1919, $49.50; and in April, 1920, $170. No. 1 common 4/4 sap gum rose from $24 in January, 1916, to $95 in April, 1920. No. I common 4/4 plain oak, another wood largely used in furniture making, during the same periods increased from $37.50 to $160. Quartered oak, firsts and seconds, 4/4 increased from $90 in January, 1916, to $310 in April, 1920; and No. 1 common 4/4 basswood, from $29.50 in January, 1916, to $125 in April, 1920. Wholesale veneer prices have risen in proportion; between January 1, 1916, and April 1, 1920, i inch gum increased from $16 to $60, •&, inch and A inch gum, from $4 to $16; i inch poplar, from $16 to $65; and quartered white oak on the aver- age, from $17 to $52 per thousand square feet.
Higher lumber prices are multiplied in retail prices of furni- ture. This may be Illustrated by a single example. The lum- ber for a medium quality plain dresser cost $2.72 in March, 1919, while in February, 1920, the same material cost .$7.65, an increase of practically $5. Dealers are reported to add usually from 75 to 100 per cent to the factory price to cover their own selling costs and profit. An increase in lumber cost to the furniture manufacturer of $5 adds from $9 to $10 to the re- tail price, and the purchaser of the dresser actually pays for the lumber which goes into it three or four times prewar prices.
Such conditions as have existed during the past year — and the lumber situation has been a material factor in this — have injected a very large speculative element into the furniture industry. In many cases the furniture maker is not sure of his lumber or what it will cost until the time of its delivery. He can neither plan future output nor estimate future costs. He safeguards his own interest through higher prices to the retail dealer, who, in turn, can be certain neither of the filling of orders nor of the cost of his stock until delivered. All of this uncertainty and speculative character encourages, and to some extent necessitates, increased prices all along the line, including finally the price to the consumer, who pays not only for increased costs but for business risks. Furthermore, pur- chasers, since they must pay high prices, demand high-grade furniture; and this, together with the widespread disappear- ance of local timber supplies, makes more and more difficult the position of the small factory producing comparatively low- priced furniture, and tends to centralize manufacture in the larger concerns.
THE VENEER INDUSTRY.
Veneer manufacture is a rapidly growing industry which sup- plies furniture makers, manufacturers of musical instruments,
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TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
the automobile industry, box makers, etc. For high-grade veneer hardwoods are used almost exclusively. The industry consumes annually the equivalent of about 780 million board feet of high-grade material, the bulk of which can be secured only from virgin stands. The demand among hardwoods is chiefly for red gum and, second, for white oak. One section of the industry, which uses such northern hardwoods as maple, birch, and basswood, is located in the Lake States. As in the case of many other hardwood-using industries, the veneer in- dustry has for some years been centered mainly in the Middle Western States. Supplies, at first local, are now largely in the South, and the main demand has been transferred from oak to gum.
The veneer situation Is similar to that described for other forest products — short supplies, abnormal demands, and com- petition, in this case among such consumers as phonograph makers, manufacturers of other musical instruments, the auto- mobile industry, and furniture manufacturers. As indicated in the preceding discussion on the furniture industry, wholesale veneer prices have increased from three to four times between January 1, 1916, and April 1, 1920.
Log prices have risen in proportion. Indiana white-oak logs, 20 inches and over in diameter, have increased during the same period from $75 to $200, and flitches from $100 to $300 per thousand board feet.
In general, there is only one-fourth of the normal supply of veneer flitches and logs in sight. Practically the only firms" not experiencing extreme difficulty in securing supplies seem to be those factories which can still obtain local timber. In a few agricultural regions reserve stocks in farmers' wood lots have been drawn out by the current high prices. The scarcity of logs has compelled some factories to close down. Veneer and ply-wood production, while nearly normal in September, 1918, had fallen approximately to 80 per cent between January and March, 1919, to 60 per cent in November, to 50 per cent in December, and is now estimated at not over 40 to 50 per cent.
The veneer industry requires high-grade material. It takes practically clear logs, generally 16 inches and more in diameter at the small end. The industry must, for its higher-grade prod- ucts, depend very largely upon the fine old timber found al- most entirely in virgin stands. The general depletion of hard- wood stands has made the industry, along with many others which accept only high-grade material, primarily dependent upon the only reserve of virgin hardwoods of any extent— the southern Mississippi Valley. Here logging operations have been seriously handicapped by adverse weather and other conditions, and as a result log supplies for the industry as a whole have fallen off 75 per cent. Veneer and ply-wood production have fallen off 50 per cent, wholesale prices have gone up from three to four times, and manufacturing concerns in the same and competing industries are bidding frantically against each other to secure the inadequate supplies of veneer stock avail- able in order to meet their current demands. The consumer pays the full bill of increased log and veneer prices, and undoubtedly more, in the advancing prices charged for final products.
THE HANDLE INDUSTRY.
For the high-grade hickory and ash required by the handle industry no satisfactory substitute has yet been found, and these two woods make up about two-thirds of the total used. The supplies now come mainly from the South. Here the most accessible timber has been taken. The few large concerns main- tain large and expensive organizations, which literally comb the country to secure material. More, and more it is becoming necessary to work into the districts remote from transportation facilities. Practically the entire territory within which hickory is found in commercial quantities is thus covered.
In the case of ash the situation is said to be even more serious. The industry has preferred the denser northern upland ash for handles. The swamp-grown ash of the Mississippi bottom lands has a smaller percentage of the dense material and has been less sought up to the present time. This has greatly limited the area from which the wood has been secured. Ash in sufficient quantities to support the handle and other competing industries is practically gone, therefore, from the Middle Western States north of the Ohio. It is predicted by one man thoroughly fa- miliar with conditions that five years more will practically see the finish of ash timber in any quantity in this section.
The demand for ash and hickory handles is so great that manufacturers can not meet requirements. The export demand is said to be even greater than before the war and American handles are being shipped to all parts of the world.
Average prices of handle material are practically unobtain- able because of the great variety in which such material is purchased — logs, bolts, dimension sizes (split, hewn, and sawn), flitch, and plank. While prices quoted are from two to three times those which obtained before the war, manufacturers state that in practice they are paying any price necessary to get supplies. They find themselves in active competition with other industries requiring hickory and ash, and particularly with the manufacturers of automobile wheels.
Average wholesale prices of standard size hickory handles 36 inches long have advanced from $1.20 per dozen in 1916 to $2.50 per dozen in 1920. Retail prices, which were from 25 to 30 cents per handle in 1916, are now 50 cents.
One of the effects of the exhaustion of local timber is the gradual elimination of the small handle factory. When timber can no longer be secured locally, the only source of cheap sup- plies, large organizations become essential in order to cover a large territory. Without the necessary capital for this the small concern must give way to the large manufacturer. There is said to be a steady drift toward concentration of handle manufacture by large concerns and the disappearance of local industries.
THE VEHICLE AND AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENT INDUSTRIES.
The vehicle and agricultural-implement industries compete for hickory and ash with the handle industry, and in addition use other hardwoods, such as oak, for which they must com- pete with such industries as the furniture makers. They are located mainly in the Middle West, but now derive most of their wood supplies from the South. A number of far-sighted organizations are said to have purchased more or less extensive hardwood tracts some years ago, from which they are now able to draw their wood supplies in part at least. For the re- mainder they depend on outside purchases.
To secure hickory, which occurs scatteringly over large areas, the vehicle and agricultural-implement industries ordinarily maintain extensive buying, logging, and milling organizations in the South. They draw upon every conceivable source — farmers' wood lots, small mills, large sawmills, and even special- ized operations designed to secure hickory alone.
These concerns in general carry in stock about a two years' supply of special-dimension stock. Hardwood lumber prices - have now gone so high that a number of them are making pur- ' chases in the open market only when prices do not exceed a prescribed maximum, and amounts secured have fallen to about one-quarter of their utilization. These Industries have found in the case of farm implements that it is Impossible to increase the prices of their products beyond a certain point without a marked falling off in sales. The result is that the material in the open market goes to the industries which are able to pass increased costs on to the consumer. Another result has been the withdrawal from the field of a number of pur- chasing organizations.
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
11
Practically the only case in the vehicle and implement In- dustries in which the scale of buying has not been reduced Is for automobile wheels and other automobile purposes. Here demand absorbs all the supply, Is constantly becoming greater, and as yet there seems to be no limitation as to price. Makers of auiniiii,biii> wheels say that they can still get the material required if they make sufficient effort and pay the price, but it is necessary to go farther and farther away for it. A very careful analysis of cost data by one concern shows that the largest element in recent cost increases is securing special stocks such as hickory from remote and inaccessible regions.
The preceding discussion applies particularly to the large con- cerns.. Small factories without large organization and outside connections for securing supplies are laboring under more serious difficulties, through the interruption of normal chan- nels of distribution.
Material is secured practically green. Neither the lumber nor the vehicle industry is adequately equipped with kilns or the trained personnel to kiln-dry the refractory hardwoods in the large sizes used. Excessive losses, in some cases running as high as 40 per cent of the material and even higher, are re- ported. This is merely another phase of the situation hardly known outside of the industries most directly concerned, grow- ing directly out of a shortage of supplies and aggravating the shortage still more.
The many inquiries received by the Forest Service from vehicle and implement makers asking for information on pos- sible substitution for the woods used in vehicle making is merely another indication of the difficulties in getting supplies at the present time, and of uncertainty as to the future. Because of the trouble and uncertainty of securing hickory and the rapidly increasing prices, vehicle manufacturers are substituting steel where possible, even though this involves still higher prices.
THE NEWSPAPERS.
High prices and serious difficuHies as to supplies are by no means confined to lumber. The newsprint situation has been very much in the foreground, particularly since the middle of 1919. Practically the only newspapers in the United States, from the large metropolitan dailies to the small country news- papers published weekly, which have not experienced serious ditliciilties are those having long-term contracts or those for- tunate enough to produce their own newsprint.
Under prewar conditions newsprint paper was contracted for on a yearly term basis at $2 a hundred pounds or less. Contract prices during and since the war have risen to $3.50, $5, $6, and at the present time even to $7, and it has been reported that 75 per cent of the existing contracts provide for a price readjustment at the end of every three or six months. Pre- war prices included freight ; present prices do not. Few news- papers are now able to contract for their entire requirements. The smaller newspapers entirely and the larger papers to a very material extent must now depend upon the spot market, in which the full effects of competition for an inadequate supply are felt. In such competition there is full opportunity for specu- lation. Prewar spot market prices of about $2 have risen rap- idly, particularly since January, 1920, until now sales reported at .SI 5 as a maximum, and even higher rates are predicted. At $15 the paper alone for a 32-page newspaper would cost 7J cents. One eastern newspaper, with a consumption of 6,000 tons, has estimated that its 1920 paper bill will be $72,000 In excess of that for 1919. A western paper estimates that its 3920 paper bill will be $450,000 more than that for 1919.
The cost of newsprint is said to be from one-third to one- half the total cost of the entire newspaper. To meet increased costs publishers must increase revenues either by raising sub- scription prices or advertising rates, or accepting more advertis- ing. The acceptance of more advertising means either the use
of more paper or the elimination of reading matter. The ratio of reading to advertising matter before the war is said to have been about 60 to 40, and it is reported that this ratio is now reversed. Some increases have been made in subscription rates, but the chief source of larger returns has been through more advertising and higher advertising rates. The newspapers which have not been able to Increase the amounts of advertising and advertising rates have been hard hit. Advertising rates during the past year have risen 35 per cent or more. Increased ad- vertising costs, designed partly to pay increased operating expenses and partly to reduce newsprint consumption, are passed on to the consumer.
Newspapers have been driven to extraordinary measures. Advertising has been refused. One New York paper Is reported to have refused six pages of advertising for a single issue. Another New York paper is reported to have refused for a single issue advertising which would have returned $14,000. Attempts have been made to eliminate waste, and the size and number of editions have been cut. Features have been cur- tailed or eliminated, the proportion of advertising to reading matter has been largely increased, and efforts to increase cir- culation have been suspended.
Unfortunately the situation is generally regarded by the public as a whole as one whtch can be easily remedied within a few months, and it is not realized that the life of the pulp and paper industry in the regions of its present development is absolutely dependent upon rapidly failing timber supplies, while Httle or no effort is being made toward their perpetuation.
THE SITUATION SUMMARIZED.
If the industries considered are representative of general conditions, and there is every reason to believe that they are, the lumber situation of the past few months has, for many industries and many classes of consumers, been one of serious shortages of supplies, of great demands, and of uncertainties in securing satisfactory amounts of desired materials. Rapidly rising prices have reached the highest points that have ever been known for lumber and for practically every other forest product consumed in the United States. Market conditions have been unstable, and it has been impossible for many con- sumers to plan with any certainty on cost of materials. The output of industries which depend upon lumber and other wood products has been very much reduced, and in an extreme case has gone as low as 50 per cent of normal.
The entire nature of competition in the case of forest prod- ucts has changed. Prior to the war the producers of lumber, newsprint paper, and other forest products competed with each other for business. Competition during the past few months has been very largely among consumers for generally inadequate supplies. Under any conditions such a reversal in the fundamental situation would result in higher prices ; but the shortage and demands have been so extreme that whole- some restraints as to prices which might safely be paid have been removed, and in many cases it has been possible to pass on to the consumer, and even to augment, almost any lumber price increases. This has not been universally true. There has been some difference between industries In the extent to which they could go. Apparently limitations have been felt more by industries producing the necessities than by those with products which fall rather in the class of luxuries.
The furniture maker finds himself handicapped in competing with the maker of musical instruments. The manufacturer of agricultural implements withdraws hts buying and manufac- turing organizations from the fleid because he can no longer compete with the manufacturer of automobile wheels. The large and well-financed organizations, able to draw their sup- plies from distant sources, have fared much better than the small manufacturer with limited capital who must secure his
12
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
raw material locally. Unfortunately, in most cases it is the lociil supplies which have been most depleted, and the existing situation lias tended to eliminate much more rapidly than in normal times the small concern in the best position to supply cheap products.
With uncertainty ns to supplies, with equal or greater uncer- tainty as to the costs, and with almost frantic bidding between members of the same industry and between different industries for materials, a larger speculative element than has ever before been known has been introduced into the sale of lumber and its further manufacture. This, again, has increased prices to the ultimate consumer, and in extreme cases, such as dwelling houses, has removed the possibility of purchase from large classes. Many industries which were operated on a compara- tively stable basis under prewar conditions now find themselves upon an uncertain and highly speculative basis.
Other changes which are much less known, but almost equally bad, might be mentioned. One will suffice. The hardwood- producing industry commonly held its stocks for several months or a year for seasoning. Consuming industries commonly car- ried in stock supplies sufficient to meet one or even two years' requirements. When material was needed it was already sea- soned for manufacture. Artificial methods ol drying were
largely unnecessary and neither equipment nor personnel was provided. Growing out of the conditions described, a very great increase in artificial drying has become necessary ; and this has been accompanied by difficulties In securing an adequate number of kilns and great losses in initial kiln operating, some- times reaching 40 per cent or even higher and aggravating the shortage.
Enough examples have been given to show the almost limit- less ramifications through which shortages and high prices of forest products reach the public. The building industry, agri- culture, the railroads, the press, house furniture, tools — these and their like concern our entire population. Shortages and high prices, accordingly, seriously affect the whole Nation.
With a realization of the existing situation witli respect to representative industries and classes of consumers, the facts as to depletion and prices acquire greater significance, and it is possible to analyze to better advantage the factors which are responsible. The discussion falls logically under two heads :
1. The abnormal conditions which have affected the forest industries and their products along with all other industries and commodities.
2. The cumulative effect of forest depletion, both in the coun- try as a whole and in the more important timber regions.
ABNORMAL CONDITIONS IN RELATION TO PRESENT SCARCITY AND HIGH PRICES.
The principa1 effect of the war upon the lumber industry was to reduce the stocks available for ordinary purposes, through curtailment of production and through the diversion of large quantities of timber to special war uses. War requirements led to the placing of large orders for unusual sizes and dimensions for such products as Army wagons and wooden ships. Through Government regulation of transportation, of the use of capital, of new construction, and even of extensions and repairs, ordi- nary distribution was practically discontinued before the sign- ing of the armistice. The lumber cut of the country fell from a prewar average of around 40 billion feet to a reported cut of only a little more than 33 billion feet in 1917, and of less than 30 billion feet in 1918. A very considerable proportion of this material, as previously indicated, was utilized for essential war purposes.
Surplus woods and mill labor, skilled and unskilled alike, was rapidly drawn into other industries or into the fighting forces. In addition the lumber industry found itself in com- petition for labor with other industries producing war essen- tials. By the time of the cessation of hostilities a very con- siderable percentage of the labor ordinarily employed in lumber production hud been diverted and scattered. Lumber stocks at the mills and those in the wholesale and retail yards of the country were very short and badly broken. The industry, there- fore, came out of the war more or less disorganized as to labor, production, stocks, and markets.
Following a period of great uncertainty on the part of the public, as well as of the industry, as to possible develop- ments, the demand for lumber began and rapidly grew far be- yond any anticipation. The shortage of houses was already serious in the United States at the beginning of the war. Dur- ing the war it became very much worse. Without any stimulus whatever the demand for dwelling houses would have absorbed large quantities of lumber. The " build-a-home " movement was fostered by the Federal Government itself.
Industrial construction had during the war also fallen far behind the growing demands of the country. Railroad purchase for repairs had necessarily been held to a minimum and exten- sions had practically been eliminated. The growing freight requirements of the country necessitated large-scale betterments and material extension. Similar demands had piled up during the war in practically all of the industries which use lumber.
This accumulated demand soon absorbed the short stock avail- able, and lumber manufacturers were overwhelmed with orders.
The lumber industry found itself unable to increase produc- tion rapidly. The output in 1919 was below normal in all the principal lumber regions of the country, with the possible exception of the South. In many of the former regions of large lumber output, the Lake States, New England, New York, Penn- sylvania, and the Southern Appalachians, the timber is so largely gone that there was little opportunity for material ex- pansion in cut to meet abnormal demands. In regions with timber reserves other factors have held the cut down.
In the southern pine region bad weather hampered logging operations during the latter part of 1919. Precipitation was far above the average. This reduced the log production, and even caused shortages which compelled many mills to run on part time. During the first 11 months of the year 135 sub- scribing mills reported to the Southern Pine Association a total loss of 80,213 hours, or approximately 60 working days each, 41,878 hours or 31 working days each, being due to a shortage of logs. On the basis of normal production this loss represented a decrease in production for the 135 mills of nearly 000,000,000 feet.
In the southern hardwood region weather conditions have been unfavorable since the fall of 1918. In the fall of 1919 the conditions, already very bad, became much worse, and effective logging or in some cases any logging has become practically Impossible through repeated rains and floods. Nor- mal log deliveries for one group of hardwood mills in October and November, 1919, were but one-third of the quantities deliv- ered during the same months in 1916.
Some of the labor drawn away from the lumber industry during the war preferred other employment and remained in the towns and cities or in other sections of the country. It is estimated that southern pine operators were confronted with an average labor shortage of 20 per cent, and in many other lumber-producing regions operators found themselves un- able to secure and hold full crews.
The industry lias been obliged to pay higher wages and grant shorter hours, and has possibly suffered from decreased effici- ency. In the case of one operation in the South it required 23 man hours in July. 1914, to produce 1,000 board feet of lumber, while in July, 1919, it required 37J man hours. Again, in July,
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
13
1914, it required 134 men on the payroll to maintain a full crew of 100 men per day, while in July, .1010. 1.~:i men were carried to maintain the same sized crew. Many operators in the Appalachian hardwood region say that they hardly know from day to day whether or not their mills will run. Illustrations of (his character could he multiplied almost indefinitely for all pans of the country, hut those already given suflioiently indi- cate the general situation. The unstable character of the lum- ber industry has been in no small derive responsible for its inability to secure and hold a desirable, class of labor, particu- larly in logging.
Impendence upon the South and the Northwest for timber has placed a greater burden upon the railroads of the country I ban they could carry under the disorganization following the war. The car shortage is estimated by various authorities at from 200,000 up. It is reported from the southern hardwood territory that only 60 to 65 per cent of the cars required for logs and lumber can be obtained. The secretary of the Cali- fornia Sugar & White Pine Co., a sales organization which served 35 mills In 1019, reports materially curtailed shipments in September, October, and November, due to a car shortage of T. per cent. While the railroads do not altogether agree as to the extent of the shortage, it is certain that difficulties in secur- ing cars, freight congestion, and embargoes have all served to accentuate difficulties in securing lumber supplies. Lumber, as one of the most bulky commodities, is always one of the first to suffer in case of freight congestion.
A disorganized industry, short stocks, abnormal demands, and reduced production have all contributed to high prices for lumber. Even though it had still been possible to produce lumber in quantity in each of the regions from which it has been so largely depleted — New England, New York, Pennsyl- vania, the Lake States, and the Southern Appalachians — lumber prices would still have risen in response to other conditions which have grown out of the war. Price increases for other commodities are significant in this connection. As shown by the Department of Labor statistics, the prices for all commodi- ties bad, considering the year 1890 as 100 per cent, risen to
250 per cent in January, 1910, and to 293 per cent in December, 1019, with an average for the year of 263 per cent. Using 1913 as 100 per cent, prices for January, 1919, had risen to 203 per cent, and in December, 1919, to 238 per cent. Regardless of every other conceivable condition, a very substantial rise in lumber prices would have been inevitable from such causes as the enormous credit expansion growing out of the war and the accompanying currency inflation, causes which are responsible for large price increases in all other commodities. It is un- necessary to dwell upon these general causes, but they must be taken fully into account in any attempt to analyze the extent to which timber depletion is responsible for price in- creases.
Abnormal conditions affecting forest products have not ob- tained alone in the case of the lumber Industry. One further example, that of newsprint, will be given. Because of war re- quirements, newsprint paper production suffered less than lumber. The industry was less disorganized and the response to increased demand was much more prompt. The Federal Trade Commission reports that newsprint production during the fiscal year 1919 exceeded that of 1918 by 8 per cent. Pre- war production had reached 1,313,284 tons in 1914. During the 20-year period preceding the war the demand for newsprint had increased practically without a break by 200 per cent. Inci- dental to the increase in demand which might have been ex- pected normally there grew out of reconstruction the most extensive use of advertising which the United States or possibly any country has ever seen. Within the year national advertis- ing increased greatly. Advertising as a whole in 1019, as shown by nearly 100 newspapers in a little less than 20 of our largest cities, increased over that of 1918 by approximately 40 per cent. During the first two or three months of 1920 the amount of advertising exceeded that for a similar period in 1918 by some- thing over 50 per cent. This demand created, in spite of the restriction of reading matter by the average newspaper, an abnormal demand for paper and was a powerful factor in the unprecedented rise in newsprint prices which has already been discussed.
STEADY PROGRESS OF FOREST DEPLETION.
FOREST DEPLETION AND MIGRATION OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY.
Each successive chapter in the history of the lumber industry in the United States has been a story of depletion and migra- tion. In softwoods it is a history of regional industries, each developing in its turn, dominating the consuming markets of the country, and declining at last so far as to be unable to meet the local requirements of its region. Each has had the same essential features of beginning, rise, and fall from light culling operations to clean cutting of good timber and poor alike and of the shifting of cut from the more to the less desirable species. The story of each region will be taken up in detail, but the main outlines should first be made clear.
In New England lumbering early became a leading industry, supporting local needs, furnishing the basis for the early ship- building industry, and providing exports. The industry ex- panded very slowly, and owing to the shifting of the cut from one section to another, from one species to another, and finally from virgin stands to second growth, partly on deserted farm lands, production did not reach the maximum until as late as ]<H>7. Since then it has been falling rapidly.
New York followed New England as the center of softwood lumber producton and was the leading lumber State in the country in 1850, although the greatest volume production was reached from 10 to 20 years earlier. Pennsylvania followed New York, and led all the States in 1860, but has now declined
until one city district consumes more than the total lumber cut of the State.
White-pine operations in the Lake States began with a sin- gle sawmill in 1832 ; eastern shipments were being made three or four years later; and the culmination was reached in 1892 with a cut of nearly 9 billion feet. Dreary wastes, dismantled sawmills, deserted towns, and an insignificant pine output of a single billion feet in 1918 are depressing reminders of the day when Lake States lumber supplied the markets of the country from the Rockies to the Atlantic Ocean and from the Canadian boundary literally to the Gulf.
The great development of the southern industry began in the seventies and increased rapidly to what was probably the maximum, about 16 billion feet, in 1909. In its turn, southern pine dominated the markets little if any less completely than white pine; but the South is following the course of other regions, and the remaining supplies of virgin pine are only about one-fifth of the original stand. Within a single decade southern pine production promises to exceed by little, if any, the needs of the South.
A great start has been made in the last chapter of the history of virgin softwood stands. Since lsi!-t Pacific coast and Rocky Mountain timber has been forcing its way increasingly into tljo middle western and eastern markets. Within the year it lias dominated those of the Lake States and has even entered in appreciable quantities those of the South itself. To the West only, of all our heritage of magnificent softwood forests, can
14
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
the country look to an increasing cut ; but even here there -are already local evidences of depletion, warnings that the con- clusion of the story will be the same as that of other regions and in far less time than has been estimated.
Hardwood depletion and the migration of centers of pro- duction has followed along much the same line, although regional boundaries have been much less distinct. Cutting began early in New England and along the Atlantic coast, spread slowly to the westward through New York and Penn- sylvania as local supplies were cut out, and became important in Ohio and the Middle Atlantic States after water and rail transportation was developed. From here it spread north into the Lake States and south into Kentucky and Tennessee and the southern Appalachian Mountains. The stands of these various regions have been successively depleted. In New Eng- land and New York, aside from second growth, largely in farm wood lots, there remain only the stands of hardwoods in the North. The commercial cut of the Middle Western States is almost a thing of the past. That of the Lake States has fallen off materially, as has also even that of the southern Appa- lachians. The end of the cut in the Appalachian States is pretty definitely in sight. The only reserve of importance is the southern Mississippi Valley, and even here it is doubtful if future production will for any length of time materially exceed the average output of the last few years.
BASIS FOR DATA.
Before tnking up the various timber regions1 the basis for the data used should be given. It should be recognized that thoroughly reliable data on such subjects as the remaining stand of timber, its quality, rate of growth, and extent of depletion, and on the forest areas of different classes, can be obtained only by a thoroughgoing timber survey requiring two or more years. Nothing of this character has ever been attempted in the United States.
More has been done in estimating the amount of saw timber than on any other of the subjects mentioned. The most com- prehensive data on timber stand were secured by the Bureau of Corporations. A part of the country only was covered for timber of saw-timber size, and such questions as the volume of material below saw-timber size, extent of depletion, rate of growth, the requirements of our industries, etc., were not in- cluded. Other available data have covered this and other
1 Figure 1 shows diagrammatically the more or less arbitrary State groups which are used in part for statistical purposes only. It shows also the principal saw timber sections of the United States. The regions of the discussion do not follow either consistently, but the areas included in each are indicated in the text. The State groups used are made up as follows :
New England : Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.
Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland.
Lake : Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
Central : Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Iowa, Missouri, eastern Kansas, and eastern Nebraska.
South Atlantic and East Gulf: Virginia, North Carolina, South Caro- lina, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.
Lower Mississippi : Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, eastern Texas, and eastern Oklahoma.
Rocky Mountains : Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, western South Dakota (Mack Hills), New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada.
Pacific const: California, Oregon, and Washington.
That part of the Kaniksu National Forest in Washington is in- cluded in the Rocky Mountain region, while those parts of the El- dorado, Inyo, Mono, and Tahoe National Forests in Nevada are in- cluded in the Pacific coast region.
The comparatively small area of rather opon woodland, chiefly on farms lying in the Great Plains between the ninety-seventh meridian and the Rocky Mountains, is not considered in the report. Some 100,000,000 to 150,000,000 acres of low-grade woodland and scrub, such as open juniper and pinon of the West, scrubby mountain stands, and chaparral, are also omitted.
jhases of timber supply only for parts of States or regions. Some of -the timber remaining in the United States has never 3een cruised under any method. That cruised has been esti- mated by different methods and by different men, and also at different times when widely varying standards of utilization were in effect. For the State of Washington, for example, a large percentage of the estimates date back to 1890 and 1895, when " red fir " and hemlock were considered inferior species and given little attention.
Possibly the estimates secured for the southern pine region are as satisfactory as any. Here it was possible to obtain the results of a recent survey which brought together the best estimates available from a large percentage of timber owners. For some regions it was possible to do little more than revise the Bureau of Corporations' estimates by subtracting the cut and depletion as offset by estimated growth. The Bureau of Cor- porations' estimates form, in part, the basis for the data used in the southern Mississippi Valley hardwood region and the Pacific Coast States. In all cases, however, such data were supplemented by additional estimates, wherever obtainable, from such sources as later and more reliable cruises of indi- vidual holdings and county tax estimates.
For hardwood stands in particular the available estimates are not satisfactory. The Bureau of Corporations' study covered only the hardwoods of the southern Mississippi Valley, which were at that time regarded as having comparatively little value, and satisfactory estimates could not be secured. Many of the industries which are now dependent for their raw materials upon the hardwoods are in great need of accurate information as to the extent of existing stands and what they can count on for the future. The data available show, however, that the future is very uncertain.
For New York results are based on a questionnaire to private owners in 1918 which covered the territory only in part. Simi- lar data were available for parts of New England. Only a ' part of the estimates for National Forest timber is based on thoroughgoing cruises.
The report embodies the first attempt to cover for the entire country the total volume of material below saw-timber size in cubic feet. It can only be an approximation.
The data on forest areas have been compiled from a great variety of sources secured for different purposes by different organizations with varying degrees of accuracy. For several of the classifications, such as productive and unproductive areas, the data are fragmentary.
The estimates of growth are based on a limited number of studies of growth made at various times during the past 20 years. While representing somewhat more detailed data than were ever before available, they are still very inadequate and no claim is made that the figures given are more than an approximation.
In response to the request of the Senate, the Forest Service has endeavored to describe the situation in fairly specific terms, using the best information available. It recognizes that . much of the data used lacks scientific accuracy and is tenta- tive rather than final in character. An attempt has been made to utilize every available source of information and to check , the figures by the judgment of well-informed men in the differ- ! ont regions.
While an exhaustive and detailed survey of the forest re- sources of the United States is necessary to establish these! figures with finality, there can be no question as to the broad ' facts_ of depletion which they indicate.
NEW ENGLAND.
THE GROWTH AND DECLINE OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY.
New England has passed through every stage of forest ex-1 ploitction from the days when only the best white pines and oaks were merchantable to present dependence upon outside
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
15
lumber and pulp wood. Early cutting was for local consump- tion, shipbuilding, and export. The homesteads of the first few generations were built of the best virgin timber. Shipbuilding early became one of the chief industries, for which the white pine and oak forests furnished the timber and pitch pine the niival stores. The heavy cutting of early days, particularly for fuel, produced a shortage of wood as early as 1840 in many sections of New England. With the introduction of coal the industrial (.niters grew, and the movement to the cities and to the new lands of the West resulted in wholesale discontinuance of cultivation. Much of the second growth timber cut to-day dates from this period.
From the Revolution to about 1840 white pine made up almost the entire softwood cut in New England ; but soon after that
land rose steadily until it reached a maximum of 3,170 mil- lion feet in 1907. This period of increased production was due to the introduction of portable sawmills, which made small scattered lots available, to the higher prices of low-grade lumber owing to growing scarcity throughout the country of the better grades, and to the large amount of second growth on deserted farms.
The lumber cut in 1907 was about 7 per cent of the total for the country ; in 1918 It had dropped to 1,400 million feet, or about 4i per cent, and in actual amount it was less than half as much as in 1907. Particularly marked Is the decline in softwoods. While in 1907 the cut of softwood in New England formed 7.6 per cent of all the softwoods cut in the country, in 1918 it had dropped to 4.3 per cent.
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S ffOCfff MOt/MT/l/M
7 /ML/IMD
8 FAC/F/C COAST F/a
PffSE
V -SOUTH ATLANTIC AND LA5T GULF
51 -LOWER MISSISSIPPI
FIG. 1.
spruce operations began. By 1870 the original white pine was practically cut except for scattered trees In northern Maine; and by 1880 the second growth pine forests were yielding an animal cut of 200 to 300 million board feet. With the extensive use of low-grade pine for boxes and matches, this later increased to 600 million feet.
Soon after it became known that woo(f pulp was a cheap substitute for rags in paper making, mills were built in north- ern New England as well as New York and the chief develop- ment of forest industries during the past 30 years has been in paper manufacture. Spruce alone was used at first, but now large quantities of balsam and hemlock are taken. For book paper poplar is used chiefly. Probably four-fifths of the pulp wood still comes from the old-growth forests, but an ever-in- rreasing proportion must come from second-growth stands.
Although the lumber business of southern and central Maine reached its peak about 1850, the total lumber cut of New Eng-
ORIGINAL AND REMAINING FORESTS.
Area. — With the exception of a few small areas, New England in 1620 was a virgin forest, comprising some 39 million acres. In 1920 not more than 5 per cent of this virgin forest remains. The present forest area is nearly 25 million acres. Of this about 8 per cent, or 2 million acres, is virgin forest, chiefly in Maine, with scattered areas in New Hampshire and Vermont. The last remnant of virgin forest in Connecticut was cut within the past decade. Of the 24,700,000 acres now classed as forest land 44 per cent, or 10,760,000, is in saw timber or pulp wood, while 34 per cent, or 8,370,000 acres, contains nothing but fuel wood, and 22 per cent, or 5,570,000 acres, is nonproductive. With nearly three-fourths of the saw timber and pulp-wood area in Maine, the poor condition of the remaining New England forests is apparent.
Stand. — The original stand of New England was probably in the neighborhood of 400 billion board feet, not including
16
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
-:null timber fit only for posts and fuel wood. The present stand of similar material is close to 50 billion board feet, or about one-eighth of the original stand. The total stand of wood in New England is estimated to be 21 billion cubic feet = (equivalent to about 70 billion board feet). Of this 40 per cent is saw timber or pulp wood and 60 per cent is fit only for fuel. The average stand of all the wooded lands is 10J cords per acre. The present stand of saw timber and pulp wood is summarized by species in the following table :
Million board feet, lumber scalp.
Spruce and fir - 23,971
White pine 9,816
Cedar 2, 789
Hemlock 1. 804
Yellow birch—, 2,933
Maple 2,897
Beech - 1,635
Oak _1. 510
Chestnut 960
Paper birch 678
374
Poplar —
Ash
Pitch pine
Other hardwoods .
215 100 117
Total 49, 799
Softwoods 38, 480
Hardwoods - 11,319
Of this total stand about three-quarters is softwood and one- quarter hardwood, About one-half is of pulp-wood species — spruce, fir, hemlock, and poplar.
THE ANNUAL DRAIN UPON THE FOREST.
In 1918 there were cut in New England 1,412,100,000 board feet of lumber and 1,446,000 cords of pulp wood. The total annual cut amounts to about 650 million cubic feet,3 of which G5 per cent is lumber, pulp wood, ties, etc., and 35 per cent fuel wood and fence posts. In addition there is a loss of about 20 million cubic feet, due to disease, insects, and fire. The total annual drain, therefore, is about 670 million cubic feet.4
THE ANNUAL GROWTH.
The annual growth of the New England forests is estimated in round figures at 610 million board feet of saw timber. Of tliis, about 434 million feet is softwoods and 176 million feet hardwoods. In addition, there is a growth of 341 million cubic feet not suitable for lumber. The total growth is 475 million cubic feet.5
GROWTH COMPARED WITH CUT.
The annual drain upon the saw timber of about 2 billion board feet is nearly three and one-half times the annual growth of 610 million board feet. The annual drain upon the fuel wood of 235 million cubic.feet is less by 106 million cubic feet than the growth of 341 million cubic feet a year. It is apparent, therefore, that the growth of low-grade material is somewhat in excess of the actual demands. In regard to lumber, pulp, and oilier high-grade material, however, the situation is anything but encouraging.
THE LIFE OF THE INDUSTRY.
About half of the entire present stand of saw and pulp timber in New England is in commercial tracts; the remainder is in farm wood lots. It is particularly from the larger com-
• Throughout the report board feet of lumber are converted to cubic feet of standing timber, and vice versa, on the basis of 219 cubic feet to 1,000 board feet for saw timber and of 500 cubic feet to 1,000 board feet for cordwood.
•' Kquivaleiit to about 2,300 million board feet.
• Equivalent to about 2,375 million board feet.
• Equivalent to about 1,300 million board feet.
mercial tracts that the cut of most of the higher-grade mate- rial conies at present. Few of even the larger timber owners have more than a 20 years' supply. Most of the pulp mills will be cut out in 20 years. Not over four or five companies own stumpage enough to last for a longer period. Unless Canadian wood is imported on an increasingly larger scale or effective forestry measures are introduced immediately, the pulp indus- try of New England will be largely a thing of the past within 30 years. Within the next 10 years the lumber cut will prob- ably drop to about 1 billion board feet; within 20 years most of the timber areas containing high-grade lumber will be cut off and the remaining timber will be either on farm wood lots or on a few remaining large tracts and will be made up of second growth or of trees which were left as worthless at the time of the first cutting. The White Mountain National Forest and the State forests may be counted upon to furnish a continuous supply of saw timber, but unless their areas are materially increased their share will be very small.
PRESENT AND FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF LUMBER IN NEW ENGLAND.
Up to 30 or 40 years ago New England was not only self- supporting in timber but exported large quantities. Within the past 30 years it has become an importing region, and it is estimated that fully 30 per cent of all the lumber used now comes from outside the region. This is in addition to the im- portations oi! large quantities of pulp wood. Within the next few years New England will have to import more than half the material it uses. This is of vital interest to a region that has about .$300,000,000 invested in wood and forest industries and employs in this connection over 90,000 wage earners.
NEW YORK.
Practically the entire State of New York was originally coyt red with a magnificent forest of white pine, spruce, hem- lock, and hardwoods. The lumber industry was one of the first to be developed. It reached its highest volume between 1830 and 1840 and was already declining at the time of the Civil War. In 1850 New York ranked first among the Stales in amount of lumber cut and contributed 20 per cent of the total cut of the entire country. Since then it has been steadily de- clining in relative importance until to-day it stands in twenty- fifth place and contributes only 1 per cent of the total cut. Its actual cut has decreased from over 1,300 million feet prior to 1850 to less than 350 million.
As early as 1856 New York ceased to be an important ox- porter of lumber and began to draw on Michigan for the upper grades of pine. Pennsylvania hemlock, southern pine, anil cypress were used in large quantities from 1880 on, and West. Coast woods in upper grades and special sizes began to come in about 1900. To-day 'Douglas fir from the Pacific northwest is a very considerable factor in the lumber market of the State. The steadily decreasing supply of native woods as compared with the increase in population is illustrated by the I'act. that New York's per capita production of lumber had fallen from 300 board feet in 1869 to about 30 board feet in 1918.
With the gradual settlement of the State the area of I'oresi land steadily decreased until to-day it forms about 41 per ecu! of the total area. The stand of timber is estimated at approxi- mately 26 billion hoard feet, of which white pine, spruce, and hemlock comprise about 10 per cent each, and birch, beech, and ii'aple a total of 55 per cent. Spruce and hemlock suitable for pulp wood but not lumber comprise some 13,400,000 cords, while material of all species stiiiable only for fuel and acid wood adds another 107,000,000 cords. This gives a total stand for the State of approximately 17,132 million cubic feet."
In quality, the present stand is decidedly inferior to that of earlier days. White pine, of the large size and high quality
8 Equivalent to about 40 billion board feet.
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
17
fur wliirh the State was once famous, now furnishes little but the poorer grades. Of the total forest urea (i'J per cent con- tains material which is suitable neither for lumber nor pulp and furnishes only fuel or acid wood. While the area of lands com- pletely denuded is comparatively small, the original forests are being followed by stands of decidedly inferior quality, both as to species anil grades. The damage- by tire is being steadily reduced by systematic tire protection, hut the methods of cm ting in private lauds are such that an increasingly large area is left partially or wholly devastated.
PENNSYLVANIA.
The forest history of Pennsylvania has been similar to that of New York. Once practically covered with a heavy timber stand, Pennsylvania for many years exported large quantities of lum- ber. In 1800 it stood first among the States in lumber produc- tion. As early as 1S70, however, the stand of white pine, the most valuable species in the State and formerly one of its prin- cipal export woods, had diminished to such an extent that im- ports from Michigan began. The depletion of the white pine was followed by an increasing cut of hemlock and Inter of hard- woods, and the State reached its maximum lumber production of 2,440 million board feet in 1889. To-day it occupies twentieth place in lumber production, and its annual cut of 530 million board feet constitutes less than 2 per cent of the cut of the country.
The present forest area of Pennsylvania is* estimated at ap- proximately 12,000,000 acres, with a stand of 11 billion board feet of timber. Of this 70 per cent is hardwoods, chiefly oak, chestnut, and northern hardwoods, and 30 per cent softwoods, one-half hemlock. In addition to the stand of material suitable for the manufacture of lumber, it is estimated that there are 380,000,000 cubic feet of wood suitable for railroad ties and mine props. The total stand, including fuel wood, is 5,200 million cubic feet.'
Depletion in Pennsylvania has already progressed so far that the complete cessation of large-scale logging operations, of which only a few are now left, may be anticipated within a decade. It has reached a point where the annual lumber production is only 60 board feet per capita, or about one-fifth of the average per capita consumption for the United States. The Pittsburgh district alone uses more lumber than is cut in the whole State. Williamsport, which once had an annual output of 300,000,000 board feet of lumber, now has not a single sawmill. In those parts of the State where the forest constituted the sole resource the trail of the lumber industry is marked by abandoned mills and practically deserted vil- lages.
The steady decrease in the amount of standing timber has been accompanied by a deterioration in quality. Virgin stands are practically gone, old-growth white pine, for example, being reduced to some 10,000 acres, practically all in a single tract which will be cut out In the next five years'. Only about 50 per cent of the total volume of wood now standing is suitable for manufacture either as lumber, pulp wood, ties, or props. The average area burned over annually is 500,000 acres, anil much of this has been burned over again and again. In addi- tion to the damage from reckless cutting and fires the State has suffered severely from the chestnut bark disease. Nearly one-seventh of the entire State, once richly wooded, is said to be practically barren. Several counties that were once rich in forest and prosperous are now almost bankrupt because the timber is gone.
THE LAKE STATES.
GROWTH AND DECLINE OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY.
White pine. — The history of lumbering in the Lake States during the greater part of the past century Is substantially the history of white-pine exploitation. Lumbering began in Michi
7 Equivalent to about 16,600 million board feet. 186212—20 3
:an and Wisconsin about 1835. Pine in enormous quantities drew lumbermen from the East, and before 1870 these States aptured the lead in lumber production. They held it until superseded by the southern pine region, between 1900 and 1910. The peak of production 'was passed in 1892, when the reported output was a little more than 8,900,000,000 board feet — largely white pine. This was an increase of 123 per cent over the cut of 1873. In 1899 Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, in the arder named, were still the leading three States, with a total [jroduction of 8,700,000,000 feet, two-thirds pine; but in 1918 hey had fallen to eighth, thirteenth, and eleventh, respectively, ind their total output had fallen to 3,220,000,000 board feet, of which only 35 per cent was white pine — mostly from Minne- sota. Wisconsin now produces less than the second-growth cut of either Maine or New Hampshire, and Michigan, from lead- ing the country from 1870 to 1895, now actually cuts less than half as much as Massachusetts.
As the Lake States forests dwindled, white-pine lumber went down, both in quantity and quality, and Norway and jack pines and even tamarack were admitted as lower grades of " northern pine lumber." The fine quality timber which gave white pine its reputation is now nearly all gone. In Minnesota two-thirds or more of the Cut is box lumber. Only small, scattered rem- nants of the old-growth white-pine forests remain in Wisconsin and upper Michigan, and in lower Michigan the most widely known tract covers about 100 acres.
Hemlock. — As the higher grades of pine grew scarce and ex- pensive, hemlock, once left in the woods as worthless, began to compete with the successively lower grades of pine introduced. Hemlock production reached its peak — 1,600,000,000 feet — about 1906. In 1914 the cut had fallen to little more than a billion, and in 1918 to 800,000,000. This does not, however, include the cut for pulp, which would increase the total volume by about one-third. By affording a market for cordwood, pulp manufac- ture is taking the small hemlock timber along with the large and thus delaying or preventing the renewal of the supply of large timber.
The northern hardwoods. — Maple, birch, beech, basswood, and elm form at least 85 per cent of the total stand of hardwoods and furnish over 92 per cent of the total hardwood cut in the Lake States. As with hemlock, the logging of hardwoods began as an aftermath of the white-pine logging. Hardwood produc- tion progressed gradually from culling operations taking only the best trees of the preferred species to cuttings such as those made at present for chemical distillation and charcoal, in which even tops, limbs, and saplings are utilized. Beech was one of the latest species to come into commercial demand; less than two decades ago it was a common practice to leave all the beech, which fires later destroyed. Now, the hardwood-using industries absorb not merely the upper grades but anything which will make lumber, and in some cases even cordwood.
The veneer industry makes a constant demand for high- grade logs. Such logs supply also the bulk of the upper grades of lumber. There has been a constantly growing demand for both veneer and high-grade hardwood lumber, expressed in the pronounced growth of such industries as the musical instru- ment and toy trades. For a considerable part of this demand lower grades ought to be acceptable ;' but so long as the demand for upper grades exists manufacturers will attempt to fill it, and the stand will dwindle the more rapidly.
ORIGINAL AND REMAINING STAND AND RATE OF CUT.
The original forests occupied practically all the land area of Michigan, Wisconsin, and the part of Minnesota not natural prairie — a total forested area of approximately 112 million acres. Lumbering and the clearing of land for cultivation have re- duced the merchantable forest cover to little, if any, more than 24,000,000 acres, about 58 per cent in farm woodlots of relatively small timber, commonly second growth, and 42 per cent In com-
18
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
mercial timber tracts, in many cases already culled of their choicest trees. A very large part of the once heavily timbered land, about 20,000,000 acres, is now fire-swept and devastated Sfiud plain and swamp, much of it with little or no promise of reproduction.
The original white pine stand of the Lake States has been estimated by Dr. B. E. Fernow at not less than 350,000,000,000 board feet. After less than a century of lumbering, fire, and settlement, only about 8,000,000,000 feet of white and Norway pine remain, largely in Minnesota. In 1918 the reported cut of white pine in the Lake States exceeded a billion feet. An- other decade will see the practical exhaustion of their com- mercial supplies of white pine.
Lower Peninsula of Michigan. — The depletion of commercial timber has proceeded furthest in the Lower Peninsula of Michi- gan, where less than a million (probably not much over half a million) acres of hardwoods and hemlock remain. The hun- dreds of large sawmills that once operated had fallen off in 1918 to about 45 that cut more than 1,000,000 board feet apiece. The number is rapidly becoming smaller, and within five years there will hardly be a half dozen large mills left. The exhaustion of the remaining old-growth stands will mark the end, among other valuable species, of the highly prized " Lower Michigan hard maple," long reputed to be the best in the Lake States. From then on whatever lumber is cut will come mainly from farm woodlots, in small amounts and sizes, and of poorer grade.
Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. — In the adjacent forest areas of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan the case is better. In 1908 the Bureau of Corpo- rations estimated the timberland at about 10,329,000 acres, with a stand of 65 billion feet. During the last 12 years probably 30 billion board feet in lumber has been removed. This would leave only 35 billion, enough at the present rate of cutting to last 15 years. There can be no doubt, however, that there is much more timber than this. The 1908 esti- mates were too conservative. There is reason to believe that the timberland still amounts to 4 million acres in upper Michi- gan and 2 million in Wisconsin, and that the total merchant- able stand is at least 48 billion feet. This would insure a con- tinued supply, at the present rate of cut, for about 20 years. This rate will not, of course, continue, but will decrease as successive mills saw out. The rate of cut is considerably heavier in Wisconsin than in the Upper Peninsula. The larger number of Wisconsin mills and the considerably smaller stand of timber indicate a much quicker falling off in the cut and an earlier termination of the supply there than in upper Michigan.
In Wisconsin, assuming a diminishing rate of depletion, the annual lumber cut will be likely to fall off within 10 years to 75 per cent, in 15 years to 40 per cent, and in 20 years to 16 per cent of the present cut, and in 25 years the timber will be practically gone. Cutting for other purposes than lumber will add appreciably to the amount of timber taken out. Further- more the pressure of an increasing demand, by stimulating the rate of cut both at the big mills and at numerous smaller mills, which will probably operate, as at present, in small patches of timber, will very likely hasten the final exhaustion of the timber. All things considered, it is doubtful if there will be any appreciable amount of timber left in commercial holdings in Wisconsin at the end of 20 years. Growth does not enter into the computation at all, unless a radical change is made in the direction of efficient fire protection and the :ipi>lication of forestry.
In upper Michigan the stand will last considerably longer. Here 60 per cent as many mills operate in twice the timber — enough, in fact, to last 40 years at the present rate of cutting for lumber only. Some new operations are already contem-
plated, however, and the cut for lumber and other products will doubtless increase within the next few years. One prin- cipal holder is reported to have estimated the life of the stand at 25 or 30 years.
Minnesota. — Timber conditions in Minnesota differ widely from those in Wisconsin and Michigan. The Wisconsin lumber cut for 1918 was 85 per cent hardwoods and hemlock, while that of Minnesota was 91 per cent white pine (which includes also a considerable amount of Norway pine and other species in the lower grades). Less than 5 per cent of the reported cut was of hardwoods.
The timbered area of Minnesota was estimated by the Bureau of Corporations in 190S at about 5,651,000 acres, and the stand at 23,200,000,000 board feet, 81 per cent of which was softwoods. A recent estimate by the Minnesota State forester places the softwood stand at 11,450,000,000 board feet, of which 41 per cent is white and Norway pine, 17.5 per cent jack pine, 2,4 per cent spruce, balsam, and cedar, and 17.5 per cent tamarack. The tamarack, which has been the greatest hewed-tie resource of the region, has practically all been killed by the larch sawfly, and must be salvaged soon if at all.
The pine forests of Minnesota have been thoroughly culled of their best material, and production now runs heavily to box lumber.
The number of mills operating in this region is being re- duced rapidly. Within the last three or four years at least four of the large mills have burned, and these will probably not be replaced. Five have recently cut out, and two have only a year's supply. This means a decrease of 30 per cent in the total cut of the State and of 33 per cent in the cut of the big pine mills. The annual cut of the remaining mills will aggregate at least 600,000,000 feet. These mills depend for the great bulk of their cut upon white and Norway pine, the remaining supplies of which are estimated by the Minnesota State forester at 4,700,000,000 board feet. This will not last much more than seven years at the present rate of cutting. If the estimate of supply is increased by one-third, the period of operation would be 10 years at the present rate. As the mills exhaust their supplies, however, the rate of cutting will diminish.
Condition of the remaining supplies. — The stands considered above are those which are being or could be logged on a large scale to large mills — mills of 10 million board feet or more annual capacity. Such mills now supply about 90 per cent of the lumber produced in the Lake States. Their holdings, even though culled, are almost wholly, of old-growth timber of superior quality as compared with second growth.
These concentrated commercial stands, aggregating about 63 billion board feet, contain about 57 per cent of the total stand of timber in the Lake States, which amounts to prob- ably 110 billion board feet. Of this total about 30 per cent (33J billion feet) is widely scattered in farm wood lots, while 13 per cent (about 14 j billion feet) is in the swamps, jack pine and scrub hardwood plains, aspen and birch stands, and cut-over lands in the North. The timber in these stands is far below that of the commercial stands in quality. The greater part is second growth. It is smaller, more lirnby, and much of it has been badly damaged by fire. Furthermore, it is largely in small, scattered tracts unsuited for efficient large- scale operations. In addition, about 19 million acres bear a cordwood stand of about 113 million cords below saw-timber size. If the lumber stand also is reduced to cords, the total stand in the Lake States is 630 million cords, or 50,584 million cubic feet.
THE ANNUAL DRAIN UPON THE FOREST.
I.umlter cut compared with total cut. — The normal lumber cut of about 3J billion board feet forms less than half of the • total volume of wood cut annually in the Lake States for all purposes. The lumber cut is the equivalent of about 770
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
19
million cubic feet of standing timber. The total output of wood in all forms is Huso to 1,000 million cubic feet. The classes of output not covered in the lumber-cut statistics in- clude pulp wood, fuel, and distillate wood, hewed tics, posts and poles, and logs and bolts used for veneer and other pur- poses. Of these, pulp wood and distillate wood make up prob- ably Ki(> million and fuel wood COO million cubic feet. The remaining 100 million cubic feet consists of veneer, cooperage, excelsior stock, ties, posts, poles, and other products.
lh-tcniinitinn of the forest. — In addition to the cut there is a constant loss to standing timber from fire, wind, insects, dis- ease, etc., probably amounting to an annual average of from one-fourth to one-half of 1 per cent of the stand. This is equal to one-half billion board feet, or 110,000,000 cubic feet, of standing timber. It includes such losses as that of tam- arack, of which, as previously shown, about 2 billion board feet has been killed by the sawfly in Minnesota alone. There is also considerable loss from decay following injuries, such as irost cracks and ice breakage. In most of the commercial stands damage from these sources is not made up by growth, sin.-e these forests are generally much beyond the age of active growth.
THE ANNUAL GROWTH.
11 nnclli coin i>a rc<! iritli rut. — The estimated annual growth In the Lake States is much less than the cut.
|
Estimated annual cut. |
Estimated annual growth. |
Growth In per cent of cut. |
|
|
Lumber, feet board measure |
3 500 000 000 |
988 000 000 |
28 |
|
All products including lumber: Cubic feet |
' 1.600 000 000 |
i 468 000 000 |
29 |
|
Cords |
20 000 000 |
5 850 000 |
|
i In terms of lumber, the aggregate annual cut of all products would be about 5,160,000,000 board feet, and the annual growth about 1,490,000,000 board feet.
These figures indicate that the total rate of cutting is more than three times the total rate of growth, and that the stand suitable for lumber is being cut more than three times as rapidly as it is growing. Furthermore, the larger part of the cut is from old-growth stands in the North, while nearly all the growth is in widely scattered second-growth stands. The cut is relatively concentrated, while the growth is widely distributed and without reference to the commercial advantages of loca- tion. This is a consideration of great significance for the future ut" the wood-using industries. The concentrated supplies are steadily waning. Their disappearance will mean the death of industries unable to adapt their production to a supply limited by the rate of growth or to import.
Fire renders millions of acres of cut-over forest land in the Lake States unproductive. If fires could be kept out, the growth on these repeatedly burned lands would probably even- tually increase 50 per cent, and could be Increased still further by intensive management.
The life of the industry. — At a diminishing rate of depletion due to the cutting out of one holding after another, it is es- timated that the lumber cut of the Lake States at the end of the next 5 and 10 years will be about as follows :
Estimated cut, 1925 -*___ 2,400,000,000
I'reseiit annual cut , 3,500,000,000
Estimated cut, 1930 1,800,000,000
This represents only the production from commercial tracts. As the commercial stands dwindle the production of lumber and other products from farm wood lots and from second growth In swamps and cut-over areas may be expected to increase con- siderably in proportion to the total cut, though not in actual amount. Such lumber will be much inferior in quality to that from the commercial stands.
PRESENT AND FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF LUMBER IN THE LAKE STATES.
The average annual per capita consumption of lumber in the Lake States is probably not far from the average for the whole country — 300 board feet. Assuming a 12 per cent Increase in population since 1910 (the increase for the previous decade was at the rate of 14.06 per cent), the present population of the Lake States is about 8,000,000. The total annual consumption of lumber in the three States is thus about 2,426,000,000 board feet, or 70 per cent of the lumber produced.
Comparison with the estimates of future cut above given indicates that by 1925 the local consumption will be equal to the local production, assuming no increase in population and the same per capita rate of consumption. At the end of a decade, allowing for a 10 per cent increase in population, con- sumption will exceed cut by nearly 50 per cent. In other words, the per capita consumption must either fall from 300 to nearly 200 board feet per year or the Lake States must import nearly one-third of the lumber needed for home use. With each succeeding year the discrepancy between consumption and local supply will become greater. Much western fir and pine lumber is already being consumed in the Lake States, and as the local cut decreases they will depend more and more upon the far West. While an actual lumber shortage may not, therefore, be antici- pated as long as the western stands hold out, the lack of a local supply will be felt In increased prices.
THE SOUTHERN YELLOW-PINE REGION.
THE GROWTH AND DECLINE OF THE YELLOW-PINE INDUSTRY.
The pine forests of the Southeastern United States, begin- ning along the Atlantic coast, have been exploited for naval stores and other forest products from the time of the first settlements. No extensive development of the lumber industry,, however, took place until the seventies of the last century. Before the Civil War a limited amount of southern pine lumber was shipped to Baltimore and Philadelphia in schoon- ers by sawmills on the eastern shore of Maryland and near tidewater in Virginia. After the Civil War the industry spread to Georgia, Mississippi, and the other Gulf States. The markets north of the Ohio River made their first demands for southern pine about 1875. By that time the Northeastern States had lost their leadership in lumber production, and the Lake States were coming to the .front with about 35 per cent of the country's cut. The great development of the southern pine industry began in the early nineties. About 1892 yellow pine from the Gulf States and Arkansas began to crowd white pine in the markets north of the Ohio River. Vast quantities were used hi the construction of the World's Fair buildings in Chicago. An extensive demand was created by the low prices in the early nineties. This demand spread into the Lake States, the Prairie States, and the Eastern States. At the end of the nineties southern yellow pine was leading the country in the cut of softwoods. In 1909 its production reached the peak, with nearly half of the entire country's cut of softwoods, and from then on began to decline.
Southern yellow pine is still the most important single factor in the lumber production of the United States, furnishing about 41 per cent of the cut of softwood lumber and 35 per cent of the entire lumber cut. It will remain an important factor for at least the next 10 or 15 years. Within the next 8 or 10 years, however, it is certain to undergo profound changes. THE ORIGINAL AND THE PRESENT PINE FORESTS OF THE SOUTH.
The original pine forests of the South Atlantic and Gulf States covered from 125 to 130 million acres and had a stand of timber close to 650 billion feet. Of this about two-thirds was longleaf pine and one-third shortleaf pine.'
• Under " longleaf pine " are Included longleaf and slash pines ; under " shortleaf pine " are Included shortleaf, loblolly, scrub, and other short-needled pines.
20
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
To-day the area of virgin yellow-pine forests is about 234 million acres, or a little less than one-fifth of the original acreage. (See Table 1.) The stand of virgin timber is about 139 billion board feet, or a little over one-fifth of the original stand.
TABLE 1. — Southern yellow-pine region — Classification of pine land by character of growtli.
|
State. |
Total net pine area. |
Area old growth. |
Cut-over lands. |
||
|
Kestocking saw timber. |
Restocking cordwood. |
Not restocking. |
|||
|
Virginia |
Acres. 4,000,000 10,700,000 8,000,000 15,500,000 18,000,000 15,500,000 12,000,000 11,740,000 9,500,000 7,424 000 2,000,000 320,000 |
Acres. ""566," 666" 600,000 700,000 11,000,000 1,500,000 3.000,000 2,510,000 1,150,000 2,000,000 500,000 30,000 |
Acres. 1,500,000 3,600,000 2,500,000 3,800,000 700,000 3,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 2,000,000 1,700,000 560,000 110,000 |
A cres. 2,200,000 5,400,000 3,000,000 6,000,000 1,000,000 4,000,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 5,500,000 1,000,500 550,000 80,000 |
A cres. 300,000 1,200,000 1,900,000 5,000,000 5,300,000 6,500,000 3,000,000 3,530,000 850,000 2,723,500 450,000 100,000 |
|
Florida |
|||||
|
Total |
|||||
|
114,684,000 |
23,490,000 |
29,410,000 |
30,930,500 |
30,853,500 |
|
Four-fifths of the original yellow-pine forests has been cut since 1870.
Out of the more than 100 million acres of yellow-pine land that has been cut over about 29 million acres now supports second growth of merchantable sizes and nearly 31 million acres cut over recently second growth not merchantable. About 31 million acres of cut-over land has not come back to pine, although much of it is more suitable for timber growth than for agriculture. As the nonrestocking areas do not produce any new growth and growth in virgin timber is offset by de- terioration, the total area on which yellow pine is now grow- ing is about 60 million acres.
The largest areas of old timber are chiefly in the Gulf States — Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Areas of second growth are most extensive in the older South Atlantic States — Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia.
Total merchantable stand. — The total stand of merchantable yellow pine, both virgin and second growth, has recently been estimated at about 258 billion feet, of which 139 billion, or 54 per cent, is old timber, and 119 billion feet, or 46 per cent, is second growth.
By States the merchantable pine stand is distributed as follows :
M feet. North Carolina— 15,300,800
Virginia 8, 698, 000
Oklahoma 4, 791, 400
Missouri 364, 700
Total (lum- ber scale). 257,691,000
M feet.
Louisiana 47, 348, 400
Mississippi 40, 476, 200
Florida ,_ 36, 429, 300
Texas 27, 524, 700
Alabama 25, 316, 400
Georgia 21, 807, 600
Arkansas 15, 743, 700
South Carolina... 13, 889, 800
The present stand is about equally divided between longleaf and shortleaf pine, with probably a slight preponderance of shortleaf pine over longleaf, the shortleaf pine being more abundant in the South Atlantic States and the longleaf in the Gulf States.
ANNUAL DRAIN UPON THE FORESTS.
The cut of yellow-pine lumber in 1918 — an abnormally low year — was in the neighborhood of 10 billion feet. Lumbermen estimate a cut for 1919 in excess of 15 billion feet. The aver- age cut for the five-year period before the war, 1911-1915, was about 144 billion feet, to which must be added at least 14 bil- lion feet of hewn ties, poles, and posts, in all a cut of about
16 billion feet of saw timber. There is also being cut in the pine area of the South about 12,250,000 cords of fuel wood.
In addition to the cut there is every year a considerable loss of mature saw timber due to windfall, turpentining, insects, fires, and diseases. This loss may be conservatively placed at from one-fourth to one-half of 1 per cent of the entire merchant- able stand, or at present from 650,000,000 to 1,300,000,000 board feet per year. In all, the annual drain upon the forests is nearly 44 billion cubic feet of wood.
THE ANNUAL GROWTH.
The annual growth is estimated at about 3 billion feet board measure on the merchantable second-growth areas and 1 billion cubic feet" on the area of unmerchantable second growth, or in all in the neighborhood of 1,660 million cubic feet10 a year, or nearly 30 cubic feet per acre for the entire growing area. (See Table 2.)
TABLE 2. — Southern yellow-pine region — Annual growth of saw timber and cordivood bv States.
|
State. |
Saw timber, Mfeet b. m. |
Cordwood. |
|
|
M cubic feet. |
Cords. |
||
|
225,000 360,000 250,000 380,000 52,500 350,000 500,000 450,000 200,000 170,000 37,500 8,000 |
88,000 162,000 120,000 240,000 30,000 160,000 40,000 48,000 165,000 35,000 11,000 1,600 |
978,000 1,800,000 1,333,000 2,667,000 333,000 1,778,000 444,000 533,000 1,833,000 389,000 122,000 18,000 |
|
|
Florida |
|||
|
Total |
|||
|
2,983,000 |
1,100,600 ! 12,228,000 |
||
CUT AND GROWTH CONTRASTED.
The amount of yellow pine that is cut is thus about three times the annual growth. In saw timber the disparity is -even greater. The annual growth upon the areas of merchantable timber is in the neighborhood of 3 billion feet, while the cut of s;nv timber is 16 billion feet. In other words, the present cut of saw timber is more than five times the present annual pro- duction.
If the present merchantable second growth were not cut into for the next 10 or 15 years, but were allowed to grow at its present rate, and the unmerchantable second growth were allowed to reach merchantable size without being prematurely turpentined, the annual growth of saw timber would be con- siderably increased. This merchantable second growth, how- ever, is now also being cut and its area decreased at a rate of not less than 11 million acres a year. About a quarter of the present yellow pine cut comes from second growth. Within the next 20 or 25 years the entire area of the present merchantable second growth may be completely cut over, and large areas will not come back to pine unless there is a decided change in the present procedure in regard to protecting the cut-over land from fire and hogs.
DETERIORATION OF THE FOREST.
It is doubtful if the South will ever again grow timber to the sizes which we find in the virgin stands. The second growth now cut for saw timber is inferior in quality to the old stands. While trees in the virgin longleaf-pine stands yield on an average from three to four logs which run six or seven logs to a thousand feet, trees in the second-growth stands
• Equivalent to about 2 billion board feet. 10 Equivalent to about 5 billion board feet.
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
21
average at most two or two anil n half logs per tree, and the logs run fifteen to the thousand. The amount of upper grades that is sawed from second growth Is much smaller than from virgin timber. For instance, a mill tally on a certain operation showed that virgin timber sawed out on the average about 55 per rent of the high grades, while second growth barely yielded 19 per cent. An inferior forest is therefore succeeding the virgin timber and the highest grades are not being replaced at all.
c/iiini/e to inferior species. — Deterioration is taking place not only in grades but also in species. The most valuable timber tnes of the southern pines are longleaf and slash pines, both for their timber qualities and as a source of naval stores. The longleaf pine, particularly throughout the Gulf States, as a rule does not come in on cut-over land, because of sparse seed pro- duction and the gra/.ing of bogs. 1'nless cut-over longleaf-pine land is protected by bog-proof fences or by stock laws the areas of longleaf pine will be greatly diminished. The original pro- portion of longleaf in the southern pine forests has already been reduced for the remaining merchantable timber from two- thirds to a little less than half. North Carolina, which once had large areas of longleaf pine and was famous as the "Long- leaf Fine State," can boast now of hardly 50,000 acres of second-growth longleaf pine widely scattered in small areas. A large part of the remaining virgin longleaf area will, after logging, either become nonproductive or be restocked to a con- siderable extent with shortleaf pine.
THE LESSON OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES.
Large areas of second growth now found in the older South Atlantic States and a fairly permanent cut of timber by small mills are often taken to indicate what the future of the Gulf States is to be after the larger sawmills have completed their logging operations. There are vital differences, however, in the handling of the timber in the two regions. The virgin for- ests in the South Atlantic States were cut over very lightly — often for local consumption only — and the logging was done by animals. This left many young trees which soon formed a new merchantable stand and provided ample seed for young growth. The present-day steam logging in the Gulf States amounts to clear cutting over large areas, and even inferior trees are fre- quently brought to the mill.
The virgin forests of the South Atlantic States contained less longleaf pine than the Gulf States. In Virginia, for in- stance, there was practically none. In the Gulf States long- leaf forms the bulk of the stand, and it is the longleaf repro- duction which is most affected by the free ranging of hogs. Furthermore, the turpentine operators are now tapping more and more young trees, and by excessive turpentining prevent many from reaching maturity.
It is certain, therefore, that under present practice the Gulf States will not have as much second growth after the virgin forests are cut out as the older South Atlantic States now have.
LIFE OF THE YELLOW PINE INDUSTRY.
A recent survey covering 5,400 mills, owning or controlling practically the entire remaining virgin stand in the South, indi- cates that 4,419 mills, or nearly 82 per cent of all those re- ported, will cut out in 5 years or less, and the output of virgin timber will be reduced by nearly 50 per cent; that 5,254 mills, or over 97 per cent, will cut out their timber in 10 years or less, with a corresponding reduction in the output of 78 per cent; that in 20 years all the mills, except 12, will have cut out their ti inner, and their production will have been reduced to only 3 per cent of the present output. This does not mean, however, that the total lumber production will be reduced at this rate. As the larger sawmills cut out small mills will take their place and will work in the second growth and on the small scattered tracts which under present conditions can not be economically logged in large-scale operations.
Although in five years over 19 per cent of the present virgin timber will be cut out, only about 11 per cent of the entire merchantable stand will be used up. In 10 years 52 per cent of the entire virgin timber will be gone, but only 30 per cent of the entire present merchantable timber. In 20 years nearly !io per cent of all the virgin timber will be exhausted and over ."io per cent of the entire merchantable timber. As the virgin timber dwindles, the second growth will contribute more and more to the production of yellow-pine lumber. In 10 or 12 years second growth will probably contribute two-thirds of the entire cut.
AHhough the exhaustion of the virgin timber does not mean entire exhaustion of the yellow-pine industry in the South, the life of the industry as now constituted is largely the life of the present large sawmills. When the larger mills cut out at the present locations, they will cease to figure in the industry; for it is now almost impossible for an operation of any magnitude to secure a location which commands enough timber to justify logging operations. The South will undoubtedly continue, as Xew England, to be a lumber-producing region. It will cease, however, to be a national factor; and from a general utility wood, the high-grade yellow pine, as the white pine, will be- come a specialty wood, while the second growth will furnish inferior grades for industrial purposes and for local use. In • about 10 years the yellow-pine region promises to take second place as a national lumber-producing center.
REDUCTION OF THE OUTPUT.
Lumber production of yellow pine in 1930, allowing for new sawmills to take the place of the larger sawmills which will be cut out, it is estimated will be about 9i billion feet, a re- duction of nearly 6 billion feet, or 38 per cent, from the esti- mated production of 1939. This means a yearly decrease in the output of about 550 million feet, or a little over 3} per cent. If, however, to the sawed lumber is added the yearly cut of saw- log material for hewn ties, poles, and posts, and the loss of merchantable timber from windfall, turpentining, fires, insects, and diseases, the reduction is likely to be at the average rate of 700 million feet, instead of 550 million feet. This does not mean that every year the output will be actually diminished by 700 million feet. If the present high prices for yellow-pine lumber continue, production may be st may hold up during the next few Should, however, such an increased production take place, the decline in the output will be so much the more rapid toward the end of the life of the industry.
PRESENT AND FUTURE CONSUMPTION OF LUMBER IN THE SOUTH.
The Southern States consume locally about one-third of their total pine cut, or 5 billion feet. By some good authorities home consumption is placed even at 50 per cent.
The South has passed the threshold of a great agricultural and industrial development. At the same time the South is underbuilt. The average value of its buildings per farm is less than in any other section of the country. With agricultural and industrial development the standards of rural and urban life will become higher; and better and larger houses will be built. This will require more lumber.
The annual consumption of lumber is expected therefore to increase until in 10 to 12 years- it may amount to 9 billion feet. By that time the output of yellow pine will probably shrink to 0 billion feet. Thus by 1930 the South may cease to be an ex- porting region, and may produce barely enough lumber for its own needs. This does not mean that no southern yellow-pine lumber will be shipped out of the Southern States, hut it il<x>s mean that the exports and imports of lumber will balance. After 1931 the South will become more and more an importing region. In 15 years the South will become dependent for its own needs upon large Importations of lumber from the Pacific coast.
22
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
CYPRESS REGIONS.
Cypress has probably passed its maximum production, and but a short time remains during which it can occupy a place of importance in the lumber industry.
The value of cypress for house building and fencing was early recognized by settlers in the South. Under the colonial rule of the Spanish and French traffic in shingles and cypress lumber with the West Indies was of great importance. Great quanti- ties were used for the hogsheads and barrels of the sugar and molasses trade. After the opening of the southern pine forests the general use of cypress as the principal material for house construction, except for shingles, fell off, and the recent de- mands from distant markets date from the falling off of the white pine supply of the North.
Until recent years only the largest and best trees nearest to streams and shallow canals in which they could be floated were cut. Utilization was therefore very incomplete. With the in- troduction of the pull boat in the nineties and finally the expen- sive steam skidder systems, and a better understanding of the value of the wood, no stands remained inaccessible.
The cypress cut reached 495 million board feet in 1900; by 1909 it was 955 million ; and in 1913 it exceeded 1 billion feet. .It has fallen off since, with a reported cut in 1918 of only 578 million. Lumbering is followed by practically no second growth, so that with the completion of present operations the cypress industry ends.
In 1909 the Bureau of Corporations estimated the total stand of cypress at 40 billion feet. The best available figures to-day place the total at 22,921 million feet, and the totals for Lou- isiana and Florida, which furnish the bulk of the cut, at ap- proximately 13,000 million. If the annual cut during the next few years be placed at approximately 700 million feet, with the additional large arid unknown amount used annually in the rough for piling, poles, and the like, it is evident that without growth in the remaining stands and on cut-over lands the supply in sight in the present producing centers, Louisiana and Florida, can not last more than 15 years. A largely diminished yearly production will be experienced much sooner. Well-informed lumbermen place the duration of the important commercial cut at no longer than 10 years.
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
The Rocky Mountain region includes Montana, Idaho, Wyo- ming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and western South Dakota." It is a region with wide differences in character and density of timber growth, in production and con- sumption of lumber, and in the probable future development and life of the lumber industry. Thus western Montana and Idaho, because of the heavy stands of white pine, larch, and yellow [line, might properly be considered part of the Pacific coast region ; while Utah and Nevada, with their open forests, have entirely different economic problems to meet as far as the timber supply is concerned. Similarly, Arizona and New Mexico are practically an economic unit by themselves; Colo- rado and Wyoming form another economic unit, and South Dakota still another. Therefore in considering the present timber situation and the future outlook for the mountain ivdon us u whole, the different sections of the region should be kept in mind.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY.
The development of the lumber industry began in the early li flies, chiefly to supply the mines. Even now mining is the heaviest consumer of wood in several sections. After 1900 the
"That part of the Kanlksu National Forest In Washington is in- cluded In the Rocky Mountain region, while those parts of the Eldorado, Inyo, Mono, nnd Tahoe National Forests in Nevada are included in the I'aclflc coast region.
lumber industry assumed more than a local character and began to ship lumber to the Mississippi Valley and eastern markets. The region is still short of the development which it will reach in lumber manufacture. It has shown a steady increase for the last 20 years, and the present cut amounts to about 5 per cent of the entire production of lumber in the country.
Western Montana and Idaho, because of the heavy stand of western white pine, larch, cedar, and yellow pine, is the most important section from the standpoint of timber supplies. Within these two States is 75 per cent of the entire stand of the highly prized western white pine. Wyoming, with its dense and extensive stands of lodgepole pine, is an Important source of material for railroad ties. Colorado, more than half of whose timber is Engelmann spruce and which has also extensive lodgepole pine stands, is an important tie and lumber-producing center for the central Rockies. Western South Dakota, with its valuable yellow pine stands, is the center of lumber produc- tion for the State and the adjoining treeless region. Northern Arizona and New Mexico, with large open yellow pine forests, supply much of the lumber used in the Southwest and ship some to the North and East.
ORIGINAL AND PRESENT STAND.
The original forest area of about 64 million acres has now been reduced by about 3 million acres. This reduction is chiefly in Montana and Idaho, where much of the early logging was on agricultural lands. The present stand of saw timber is about 223 billion feet, or 10 per cent of the entire stand in the countrj. Practically all of it is softwoods. The stand is very unevenly distributed. Nearly 60 per cent, or 130 billion feet, is in Montana and Idaho; 18 per cent, or 39 billion feet, is in Arizona and New Mexico; 11 per cent, or over 25 billion feet, is in Colorado ; and the remainder is distributed in smaller quantities among the other States of the region.
THE ANNUAL DRAIN UPON THE FOREST.
The annual cut of saw timber is about 1J billion board feet, besides at least half a billion feet for ties, posts, poles, and fuel wood, making the total annual cut about 2 billion feet. This, also, is unevenly distributed. Montana and Idaho to- gether have an annual lumber cut of over 1 billion feet; Colo- rado, Wyoming, and South Dakota together produce not over 150 million feet ; and some 170 million feet is cut in Arizona and New Mexico. Besides the cut there is a loss of saw timber through lire, insects, and disease. In Idaho and Montana, where fires are most destructive, the annual loss from fire has recently averaged about 1,100 million board feet. The annual loss due to insects and diseases in these two States is estimated at about 100 million feet. For the entire region the loss from fire, insects, and disease is at least 1J billion feet. The total annual drain upon the forests is about 3i billion feet, two- thirds of which falls upon Montana and Idaho.
ANNUAL GROWTH.
The annual growth in the Rocky Mountains is estimated at 461 million board feet of saw timber and 264 million cubic feet in the form of immature stands (equivalent to about 528 million board feet), which makes a total of nearly 365 million cubic feet (equivalent to about 989 million board feet), or 21.5 cubic feet per acre per year on the growing area. Most of the growth is in Montana and Idaho.
CUT COMPARED WITH GROWTH.
Considering saw timber alone, the annual drain is about seven times the growth. If we compare the cut of all forest products with the entire growth in cubic feet, the cut and devastation is two and one-half times the growth.
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
23
LOCAL NEEDS.
In Montana and Idaho the present cut of saw timber is In excess of the local needs, which are about 850 million board feet. Arizona and New Mexico are not self-sustaining. In 1914 about 350 million board feet of timber was used and only 132 million feet was produced. Wyoming, although It produces more than 600,000 railroad ties and a large number of poles, posts, props, and mine ties, manufactures only about 15 million feet of lumber, less than enough for Its population. Colorado, although It produces 550,000 railroad ties and large quantities of posts, poles, props, and mine ties, manufactures less than 100 million feet of lumber, and is not self-sustaining.
THE FUTURE OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY.
Of the Rocky Mountain States, only western Montana and Idaho now produce lumber above their needs and can increase their output in the near future. It would seem that the forests of Montana and Idaho, with some 130 billion feet of saw timber and a present cut of only 1 billion ; Colorado, with over 25 billion feet and a cut of 100 million; Arizona and New Mexico, with 39 billion feet and a cut of only 132 million, are capable of sus- taining a larger lumber industry for a considerable time,
It should be remembered, however, that the region is still underdeveloped and that its requirements for lumber may also he expected to increase with its rapidly growing population. Furthermore, within the next 12 years over 95 per cent of the existing sawmills in the southern yellow-pine region will cut out. The Pacific coast and western Montana and Idaho will have to assume the main burden of supplying saw timber to the entire country. This means more rapid cutting of the remain- ing stands and a big increase in the existing deficit in annual growth. A large amount of the standing timber is relatively inaccessible. The future supplies of accessible timber are therefore much more limited than is indicated by the estimates of the total standing timber. The privately owned timber in the territory tributary to Spokane will be cut out in 25 or 30 years if the present rate of cutting continues; and the cut, which now amounts to approximately 550 million feet of logs, will drop to 100 or 125 million feet, which the local National Forests can produce annually on a continuous basis. The lum- ber industry will then move to other timbered regions, probably to the Clearwater territory, which is tributary to Lewiston, Idaho. Even if the rate of consumption should not increase above the present figure, it appears that the bulk of Idaho's privately owned timber, including 75 per cent of the remaining white pine in the United States, will be gone in about 40 years.
The western red cedar Is now being cut extensively in Mon- tana and Idaho for poles, piling, posts, and shingles. The pres- ent average annual shipments of poles, piling, and posts from Montana and Idaho amount to 216,360 poles and piling and s.TMi.OOO posts. The regions which are now being exploited will probably be exhausted within the next 20 years and opera- tions will be transferred to more remote areas. The present cedar lumber prices have diverted into lumber a large portion of the material ordinarily manufactured into posts and shin- gles. Continuation of this demand might easily exhaust the entire available supplies of post and pole material In 20 years.
The future of the lumber industry in western Montana and Idaho will not be unlike that of the Pacific Northwest. There is tliis difference, however, that the supplies in western Mon- tana and Idaho are much smaller than those in Washington and Oregon, and comprise three-fourths of the remaining sup- lily of one of the most valuable softwood timber trees of- the country — western white pine. Now that the eastern white pine is practically exhausted, the demand upon the western species will tend to increase. The other States of the Rocky Mountain group will not be Important factors in the lumber production for the general market.
PACIFIC COAST.
GROWTH OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY.
The development of the lumber industry on the Pacific coast, our last great coniferous timber reserve, lias already progressed far. The first sawmill in the Northwest began operations on I'lucl Sound in 1S45. Within a decade lumbering became, and still is. the chief industry in western Washington. The cut for a good many years was used locally or shipped into California or exported. Not very much timber was cut until after the completion ,,f UK- Northern Pacific Railway in 1SS2. and then for a number of years only in special trades. Twelve years later lower freight i-ilcs were made on eastern lumber shipments and the pronounced development of the west coast industry began.
Very little lumber was cut in California prior to the begin- ning of gold mining In 1849. Lumbering in the redwood belt began about 1860 and grew steadily. In 1899 Washington, Oregon, and California cut a little more than 2,900,000,000 board feet. Production increased slowly until in 1918 the total was slightly in excess of 8,590,000,000 board feet. Washington became the leading State in lumber production in 1905 and has since held this place, except only in 1914, when it fell slightly below Louisiana. The present cut is about 4,500,000,000 board feet annually. Oregon at present is the third State, with a lum- ber cut for 1918 of a little more than 2,700,000,000 board feet. That for California has never exceeded 1,500,000,000 feet.
In the 12 years between 1906 and 1918 the cut of the West Coast increased only about 1J billion feet, largely because of the inability of the product to displace southern pine in the eastern and middle western markets under the handicap of higher freight rates. Within the last year, however, shipments have increased and yellow-pine markets up to the very boun- daries of the producing territory have been Invaded.
ORIGINAL AND REMAINING FORESTS.
The commercial forest area of the Pacific Coast States has been reduced to approximately 57,586,000 acres. A large per- centage of this, about 39,370,000 acres, Is in virgin stands, not all, however, of accessible high-grade timber, for there is a large percentage of relatively inferior and inaccessible areas. This is an important factor which is usually overlooked In the consideration of the western timber supply. Second growth of saw-timber size covers about 5,292,000 acres and smaller second growth 6,425,000 acres, while nonrestocking areas cover 6,500,000 acres.
Of the volume of the original forest no satisfactory statis- tics are available. The present stand, however, Is about 1,141,- 031 million board feet, or practically half of the remaining saw timber in the United States. Oregon leads with a total stand of 493,700 million feet ; that of Washington is 334 billion ; and that of California, 313,331 million. Six hundred and eighty- six billion, or more than half of the total, occurs in the Doug- las fir belt of western Oregon and Washington.
Douglas fir comprises 558,571 million feet, and of this 505 billion, or nearly one-fourth of the remaining stand of saw timber in the United States, is in Washington and Oregon. Est imates by species are as follows :
Board feet, lumber scale.
Douglas fir .. 558,571,000,000
Western yellow pine and Jeffrey pine 183,453,000,000
Western hemlock (largely in western Wash- ington and Oregon) 94,000,000,000
True firs 82, 479, 000, OOO
Redwood (California) 72,208,000,000
Sugar pine anil western white pine (largely
sugar pine in California) 38,485,000,000
Western red cedar (western Washington and
Oregon) 49,000,000,000
Spruce (Washington and Oregon) ' 13, :i.V>, (MM), 000
Lodgepole pine 4, riliG, 000, 000
Others 44, 914, 000, 000
Total 1, 141, 031, 000, 000
24
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
GROWTH AND DEPLETION.
The total area cut over Is approximately 6,125,000 acres, of which two-thirds is in Washington and Oregon, and a very largo percentage west of the Cascades in the Douglas fir belt. As already indicated, the total nonrestocking area of the Pacific Coast States is estimated at 6,500,000 acres, but this is only a part of the sum total of depletion, since there has been great and needless loss from the destruction of virgin stands by fire and other causes on a part of the 6,425,000 acres now support- ing second growth. The area burned over annually in these three States is shown by Forest Service data to amount to 450,000 acres, and the loss in timber to about 600,000,000 board feet.
The average annual cut, largely lumber but including rela- tively small amounts of other materials, is about 10 billion board feet. To this it is probably safe to add 1J billion feet lost by fire and other causes. It is also probably safe to assume that 11 billion feet out of the total represent the drain upon saw timber. Annual growth is estimated at 1,262,000,000 board feet. There is in addition growth of approximately 430,000,000 cubic feet in stands of unmerchantable size. Total growth in cubic feet amounts to 706,000,000. " One reason for these compara- tively low figures is, of course, the fact that so much of the territory is occupied by virgin stands. Total depletion in cubic feet amounts to 2,500,000,000. Depletion is therefore approxi- mately three and one-half times the growth. The depletion in timber of saw timber size is approximately nine times the growth of the same class of material.
LIFE OF THE INDUSTRY.
The timber stand in California is estimated at 313,331,000,000 board feet. This is being reduced by cutting at the rate of about 1,500,000,000 feet annually. These figures should not be taken alone, however, for there are other important aspects of the situation. Increased demands from the East will almost certainly result in an increased rate of cut for California. Practically all of the cut up to the present has been in the most accessible stands, whereas a considerable part of the remain- ing timber is comparatively inaccessible.
Logging operations are now removing annually a little less than 2 per cent of western Washington's timber and less than 1 per cent of western Oregon's timber. Yet the reasonably ac- cessible timber and that in private ownership is going very much faster, and with decreasing southern pine production enormous pressure to increase the cut may be expected.
A study of the local timber supply indicates that in certain localities a large proportion has been cut off and that log- ging operations are being pushed back to the less accessible timber in the rougher mountainous regions. The exhaustion of local supplies is a vital matter to local prosperity and de- velopment It means the cessation of a local industry, the abandonment of improvements, rapid depreciation of invest- ment, and other losses which the industry, the community, and the consumer must shoulder. One authority estimates that only a third of the original privately owned timber tributary to Puget Sound remains.' The situation in Grays Harbor County illustrates the rapid exploitation which in a surprisingly short time is to end the industry locally. About 20 years ago there were in this county 750,000 acres of timber and only about 75,000 acres of cuttings. Now there are 355,000 acres of stumps. One-sixteenth of the county's private timherland is being cut over annually. In 25 years the supply of privately owned virgin timber will be gone.
King and Snohomish Counties, Wash., the scene of the earli- est lumbering operations in the Northwest, also illustrate local exhaustion of virgin timber in the not very remote future. Forty billion of the original 80 billion feet of commercial timber
12 Equivalent to about 2,100,000,000 board feet.
has been cut. Thirty billion of the remainder is in private ownership, and is now being felled at the rate of 800,000,000 feet annually. Indications are that this private timber will be gone in about 35 years.
One authority on the lumber supplies of Washington has studied the rate of exhaustion from the annually decreasing acreages of private land assessed as " timberland." He found that from 1909 to 1919 there was a decrease in the acreage of timberland in western Washington of about 850,000 acres, or 85,000 acres annually, and in eastern Washington of about 390,000, or 39,000 acres annually. On the basis of 3,585,686 acres assessed as timberland in 1919 in western Washington, privately owned old-growth timber would last 42 years at the present rate of cutting. Similarly, in eastern Washington, for the 1,128,606 acres of private timberland in 1919, the present rate of cutting would exhaust the virgin timber in 26 years. Adjusting these statistics to provide for additional land which was classified as timberland in 1919 but not in 1909, he believes that an even faster rate of cutting of the private stumpage is indicated, and that, disregarding increment in second-growth stands and without allowing for the expected increased cut, the private virgin timber will last only 35 years in western Wash- ington and 20 years in eastern Washington. Allowing for the almost certain increased rate of cutting, he expects the privately owned virgin timber supply of Washington to be virtually gone in 20 years unless forest policies are changed.
Bend, Oreg., is the center of one of the most extensive and famous of Oregon's yellow-pine belts. A few years ago an unbroken forest of virgin yellow pine extended to the very edges of the city. At present cutting has left a practically unbroken waste for 6 or 7 miles to the west and south. The operating territory surrounding Bend has a radius of from 20 to 30 miles and occupies an area of 382,000 acres of mer- chantable forest, carrying 5J billion feet of commercial timber. Of this about 231,000 acres, carrying 3} billion feet, is pri- vately owned. The present rate of cutting, which is likely to continue and may be augmented, will exhaust the privately owned stumpage in 25 to 30 years.
Depletion in Washington has gone much further than in Oregon, and while an expansion of the industry in Washington under increased demands from eastern markets may reason- ably be expected, by far the greater part of the expansion may be looked for in Oregon. The reason for the slower develop- ment in Oregon lies in the greater inaccessibility of its Douglas fir stands. Many operations now being seriously considered for Oregon will require transportation and other investments running into the millions of dollars before any timber can be taken out.
The factor of local consumption must also be considered. California is an example. Its industry is large and promises to grow. From the earliest days California has been an im- portant source of export material. Large quantities are still exported to the East and to foreign countries; but up to the present time the State's population and agricultural and indus- trial development have more than kept pace with the output of lumber, so that it is doubtful whether production has ex- ceeded consumption since about 1875. From the beginning of lumbering on Puget Sound California has imported large amounts of fir. The per capita lumber cut of the State has been approximately equal to or slightly in exc-ess of the average per capita consumption of the United States since between 1869 and 1879, while the average consumption of the State is probably somewhat greater than for the country as a whole. In 1919 southern California alone used the equivalent of about half the total cut of the State, a per capita con- sumption of at least twice that of the whole United States.
The lumber cut for the Pacific Coast States as a whole will undoubtedly increase very materially during the next 10 years.
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
25
Local demands will also increase, but not in proportion to the cut. Large additional amounts will he available for the eastern markets. A gradual rise in logging costs is inevitable as the more accessible stands are cut out and it becomes more and mure necessary to extend operat inns to the rougher mountainous logging chances, with lighter and more broken stands and larger percentages of the less desirable species. The timber resources of the Pacific Coast States are very large, but it would be very unwise to overestimate them, for much less than the lotal siand is readily available. Existing transportation facilities to the East are already overburdened with present Irallie, and they will have to be very materially increased to meet the probable reduction in the eastern and southern lumber cut during the next 10 years.
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN HARDWOODS.
GROWTH AND DECLINE OF LUMBERING.
For the purpose of this report the .southern Appalachian hnrdwood region includes the hardwood forests of Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Large-scale logging operations shifted to this territory from Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana. Operations in West Vir- ginia on a large scale did not begin until after the Civil War. Before 1900 central Kentucky and Tennessee were well cut over. The cut for the entire region was at about the maximum in 1009, with an output in hardwood lumber of approximately -t billion board feet. Following this there was a pronounced decline, and in 1918 the cut had decreased to 1,700,000,000 feet. While this heavy falling oft' in cut was, of course, very largely due to war conditions, there has been a decrease in proportion (o the total hardwood cut of the country, for which the deple- tion of supplies appears primarily responsible. The proportion of the aggregate hardwood lumber production which was sup- plied by the Appalachian States had risen gradually from 32 per cent in 1899 to 41 per cent in 1914, but by 1918 it had fallen to 34 per cent. West Virginia, which held the lead In hardwood production from 1910 to 1917, lost it to Arkansas in 1918; while North Carolina, which cut approximately 400 million feet in 1909, dropped to less than 200 million in 1918.
The cut has declined in quality as well as quantity, and this Is perhaps the more serious aspect. The early lumbering con- sisled of cullings in which only such trees as walnut, cherry, and the finest of oak and yellow poplar situated along the driv- able streams were removed. The introduction of logging railroads extended operations into nearly all parts of the re- gion, until now there is comparatively little virgin timber left, most of it remote and difficult to log. The present logging operations are largely working over previously-culled stands, removing practically every saw log and a large part of the smaller material. The quality of the lumber produced is con- sequently much poorer than formerly.
THE ORIGINAL FOREST.
The virgin forests which once covered practically the entire land area of this region contained a wealth of hardwood tim- ber unsurpassed in the Northern Hemisphere. Oak, chestnut, and yellow poplar of large size and high quality filled the coves and valleys, mixed with walnut, cherry, hickory, bass- wood, cucumber, and other valuable hardwoods, and softwoods such as white pine and hemlock. Over an area exceeding 60 million acres the original hardwood stand may be estimated at more than 325 billion feet.
THE REMAINING STAND.
Lumbering and settlement gradually restricted the area of commercial timber to the mountains. This part of the region, about 35 million acres, now contains practically all of the re- maining tracts of old-growth hardwood timber, and the extent
of these has been reduced to about one-third of the total area, the remaining two-thirds being either in recently cut-over land, usually badly burned, or in farmers' woodlands. So far as can be learned from the available sources, the stand is in the neighborhood of 80 billion board feet, of which 60 billion is old-growth timber occupying about 12 million acres. Most of (his has been culled of Its best trees, and the virgin tract* which remain are few, relatively small, and remote. About 12 per cent of the stand is spruce, hemlock, and various pines. The oaks are the principal hardwoods and probably comprise about 35 per cent of the stand, while chestnut Is the most abundant single species and is estimated at 25 per cent.
For all the States within which the southern Appalachian Mountains lie, the total stand of hardwoods is estimated at 147 billion board feet, about 58 per cent of the total stand of both softwoods and hardwoods. Outside of the mountain re- gion the stand is practically all second growth in farm wood- lands. The total area bearing hardwood stands is about 55 mil- lion acres.
LUMBER CUT AND TOTAL CUT.
During the two years preceding our entrance into the war the annual hardwood lumber cut of the southern Appalachian States fell from about 3i to about 2i billion board feet. In 1918 there was n further reduction to less than 2 billion board feet. Under normal conditions it is likely that the cut of lum- ber would still be proceeding at close to 3 billion board feet per year. The lumber cut, however, Is probably only about 35 per cent of the total drain upon the -forests. An immense amount of material is taken out in the form of tanning-extract wood and bark, poles, ties, cooperage stock, fuel, and other products. Expressed in terms of cubic volume, the " normal " annual lum- ber cut Is the equivalent of 657 million cubic feet of standing timber, while other products consume an additional 1,220 mil- lion cubic feet, making a total annual production of about 1,877 million cubic feet. Much of this output Is, of course, from second-growth timber. Of the lumber output, however, fully 75 per cent is from the remaining old-growth stands. After the exhaustion of the old growth the entire supply of lumber must come from the second growth, and since very little of this will yield lumber of a better quality than No. 1 common, the effect upon the furniture and other Industries largely dependent upon high-grade lumber will be very serious.
DETERIORATION OF THE FOREST.
The chestnut blight has entered the mountain region, and in the opinion of pathologists Is almost certain to sweep through the hardwood forests, eliminating chestnut. Besides depriving the tanning and other industries of one of their chief sources of supply, this disease will throw the burden of the lumber cut upon other species, thus hastening the process of depletion. It Is impossible to forecast the rate of this depletion.
A further loss which can not be measured satisfactorily In amount of material or money value is that from forest fires. Much of the mountain forest has been repeatedly burned, and while not much timber has been actually killed the fires are responsible for a great deal of deterioration in the timber.
THE DURATION OF THE CUT OF OLD GROWTH.
Much uncertainty exists in the minds of even the best-In- formed men in the lumber industry as to the duration of the cut in the remaining old-growth stands. In West Virginia, which has been one of the leading hardwood producing States, the statement was made by one of the best-informed men in the industry that the length of cut on a large scale would not ex- ceed five years. The manager of one large company reports that most of the mills of the State will cut out within five to eight years. A responsible official In another company states that very few concerns In his section of the State have over
186212—20 4
26
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
five years' cut. In North Carolina the State forester estimates that the supply of old-growth hardwood timber will last 17 years. One of the best-informed lumbermen in western North Carolina estimates that the cut from old-growth timber in north Georgia and southwestern North Carolina will last 20 years, but that this cut will come increasingly from small operations.
In Kentucky and Tennessee the duration of the cut of old- growth hardwoods is believed by the manager of one lumber company to be 20 years, while another well-informed man. sees 15 years ahead for the Kentucky hardwoods. A future cut of 15 years is predicted for old-growth timber in the southern Ap- palachians by another representative of the industry, while still another estimates that the supply will last 25 years.
The consensus of opinion among the best-informed men in the industry seems to be that if present conditions continue the southern Appalachians will have ceased to function as an important source of high-grade hardwood lumber within 20 years and that within 25 years the old-growth timber will be practically gone.
EFFECT OF DEPLETION UPON SELECTED INDUSTRIES.
Further light is thrown on the extent of the depletion of the southern Appalachian old-growth hardwoods by a Questionnaire to the wood-using industries of North Carolina by the State forester. Referring to local supplies at the present time in comparison with conditions existing during the past 10 or 20 years, 93 per cent of the fuisiiture makers, 91 per cent of the vehicle makers, and 100 per cent of the chair makers reported that supplies had been greatly reduced. In referring to pros- pective local supplies on the basis of a 10-year outlook, 12 per cent of the furniture, 22 per cent of the vehicle, and 43 per cent of the chair factories reported that supplies would be ex- hausted. Eighty-eight per cent of the furniture, 67 per cent of the vehicle, and 57 per cent of the chair makers reported that supplies would be gradually reduced. Of all of these only 11 per cent of the vehicle factories reported an outlook for suffi- cient material.
The replies received from the furniture manufacturers indi- cate a marked decrease in the use of oak and poplar as com- pared with gum. In 1909 the lumber used was 74 per cent oak, 13 per cent poplar, and 1 per cent gum, while in 1919 the per- centages of oak and poplar used had been reduced to 60 and 6 per cent, respectively, while gum had increased to 21 per cent. The manufacturers indicate that the present year will see a still larger proportion of gum used.
THE ANNUAL GROWTH.
There are about 22 i million acres of second-growth hardwoods of saw-timber size in the southern Appalachian States, which are estimated to be producing about li billion board feet per year, equal to about 325 million cubic feet of standing timber. In addition there are approximately 22J million acres which are producing hardwood material of only cordwood size. The annual growth on this area is about 570 million cubic feet. The total growth is thus about 900 million cubic feet.
GROWTH COMPARED WITH CUT.
Growth is about one-half the " normal " rate of cut :
|
( |
Estimated annual cut ("normal"). |
Estimated annual growth. |
Growth in per cent of cut. |
|
Lumber, board feet , |
3,000,000,000 i 1,877,000,000 |
1,490, 400, 000 1895,000,000 |
50 48 |
|
A 11 products, including lumber, cubic feet |
|||
|
1 In terms of lumber, this corresponds to an annual cut of about 5,4-10,000,000 board feet and an annual growth of about 2,630,000,000 board feet. |
In contrasting these figures, however, it should be remem- bered that much the greater part of the cut is being taken from the relatively concentrated old-growth timber, while the growth is taking place in the widely distributed stands of >e.-ond growth. The cut is from large timber yielding high- grade lumber; the growth is nearly all low gr'ade because of the small size of the trees. Great damage is constantly being done by forest fires, while the second growth itself is being drawn upon more and more for a wide variety of small wood products.
IMPORTANCE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE FUTURE LUMBER SUPPLY OF THE COUNTRY.
The future production of the Appalachian hardwood region is of 1'iir more than purely local importance. The hardwood forest lands of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois, which supplied 25 per cent of the total hardwood lumber cut as late as 1899, have been converted into farms almost as fast as the land has been cleared, and small isolated tracts, as farm wood lots, will furnish the only future timber production. Hardwood lumber production is now centered in the lower Mississippi Valley, and the cut is almost entirely from rich agricultural lands from which timber production can not be expected In the future. Farm woods will continue to contribute, but if there is to be any permanent supply of large-sized, high-grade, hardwood saw timber it must come very largely from moun- tainous, rough, or otherwise nonagricultural lands like those in the southern mountains. Aside from relatively small areas in the Lake States and in New England, the entire country must look to the southern Appalachians.
HARDWOODS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AREA AND STAND.
The lower Mississippi Valley, including the States of Arkan- sas, Mississippi, Louisiana, eastern Texas, and eastern Okla- homa, constitutes the last great reservoir of hardwoods in the country. Of the hardwood area of 36,000,000 acres in this region, 60 per cent, including the heaviest stands and most valuable species, is located on the alluvial bottoms of the Mis- sissippi Delta. Most of this is unusually fertile and will even- tually he cleared for agriculture. The remaining 40 per cent, of upland stands, is of less importance from a lumber standpoint, both because of the smaller trees and great mixture of species and because much of it is broken up by farms and pine stands.
Altogether the region is estimated to contain nearly 133 billion board feet of saw timber, or more than twice as much as the present stands of old-growth hardwoods in either the Lake States or the southern Appalachians. With the exhaus- tion of the hardwood supplies in these regions, the lower Mis- sissippi Valley is being drawn on more and more heavily to furnish the raw material for the hardwood-using industries of the entire country.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LUMBER INDUSTRY.
During the period from 1900 to 1906 the cut of hardwoods in Ohio, Indiana and Illinois, which had previously contributed large quantities to the vehicle, furniture, railroad-car, and other hardwood-consuming industries, fell off by nearly 50 per cent. By 1906 the center of hardwood production had shifted to the Appalachian States, which furnished nearly half of the country's hardwood consumption, while nearly one-fifth came from the Lake States. Now these regions in turn are declining in production, and there is a corresponding increase in the cut of the lower Mississippi Valley. The exploitation of hard- woods in this region has progressed steadily since 1900, its contribution to the total hardwood cut increasing from 14 per cent to approximately 25 per cent. To-day the hardwood
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICKS, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
27
products from this region are being used lo supply I lie factories of the Carolina*, the Ohio Valley, and tlie Lake States, which were formerly independent of imported material.
The lasi of the great hardwood regions is thus well on its way toward complete exploitation. Already the exhaustion of the original supplies in the northern part of the region centering around Memphis lias reached (he point where it is profitable lo return to cut-over areas for trees that were formerly re- garded as too small to log and for less valuable species, such as lupelo and water gum. which at the time of the first cutting were Unmerchantable but which now command a ready sale. The present practice in this part of the region is to remove all species. Wood distillation plants have been installed for using cord- wood and there Is a steadily increasing interest in the utiliza- tion of smaller .sizes, inferior trees and logs, and species formerly rejected. The day of the small mill and wood-prod- ucts plant has arrived. More and more the large mills are tinding themselves forced either to buy logs in order to con- tinue operation or to move down river into southern Mississippi and Louisiana where new plants can be erected with reasonable prospect of a •_'(! to L'.~> years' supply of material.
In the southern part of the territory, in southern Mississippi, Louisiana, and eastern Texas a much larger proportion of the original forest is left. Here large mills are still the rule and are increasing in number and in rate of exploitation. It Is therefore likely that increased production in this part of the region will lead to an increase of the present annual cut of ap- proximately a billion and u half board feet of hardwoods for the region as a whole. How long it will last can not, however, be definitely predicted. The one thing certain is that eventually the southern part of the region will repeat the history of the northern part and that the virgin stands and large mills of to-day will be replaced to a large extent by portable mills operating culled and second-growth stands.
GROWTH AND DEPLETION.
Since the region is largely agricultural in its future possi- bilities, comparatively little in the way of timber growth can be looked for. The extent to which it is drawing on its forest capital is of great importance, because it is the source of our largest remaining hardwood supply. A net growth is taking place on only some 6.5 million acres carrying hardwoods of saw- timber size. The annual growth on this urea is estimated at approximately 395 million board feet, or but little more than one-fourth of the normal annual lumber cut of 1,500 million board feet. In addition there is an annual growth of 301 million cubic feet (about 002 million board feet) on the 15 million acres with stands below saw-timber size, making a total growth for the region of 387 million cubic feet (about !K»7 million board feet).
In addition to the depletion in quantity of material there is a depreciation in the quality of the remaining stand. Of the .'it; million acres of hardwood lands in the region, approxi- mately 22 million acres are contained in the alluvial bottom lands of the Mississippi Delta. It is on these alluvial soils that the heaviest and nuest stands of hardwoods remain, par- ticularly oak, red gum, ash, and cottonwood, which in 1918 made up more than 50 per cent of the reported cut of hard- woods for the entire country. Oak and red gum are now being logged most heavily and in 1918 made up more than two-thirds of the total hardwood cut in the region. These species, because of the demand for them in the veneer industry, are two of the most highly prized hardwoods of the South, but they are valuable for veneer only when cut from virgin stands and in large sizes. With the rapid depletion of the present virgin stands there will therefore be a corresponding quality short- age, which will result in a relatively larger proportion of the future cut being made up of such secondary species as syca-
more and tupelo and of poorer specimens of the more valuable species, such as oak and gum.
THE FUTURE OF THE REGION.
This steady depletion of the hardwoods in the lower Missis- sippi Valley is accentuated by the fact that the bulk of the
bottom-land stands are on s e of the most fertile farm soils
in the country. With the removal of the timber they will, for the most part, be devoted to agriculture. Drainage and clearing of the cut-over lands has been going on for more than a decade at a rate which indicates that not over 10 per cent, and probably less, of the area once under hardwoods will be allowed to come up to second growth. This change in the use of the land, which is of course in accordance with its highest utilization, means that the cut in the bottom-land region of the lower Mississippi Valley can not be maintained from second growth to the same extent as has been the case in the Northeastern and Central States. Once the present stand of timber on these bottom lands is gone the hardwood supply of the country will be permanently reduced, and the future cut of hardwoods must come from sec- ond-growth stands of relatively inferior quality in other parts of the country.
NEWSPRINT SUPPLIES.
THE FACTS AS TO DEPLETION.
Newsprint paper is one of the leading products of the pulp and paper industry, which in its modern development depends upon the forest for its raw material. The present newsprint shortage goes back fundamentally to our dependence for news- print production upon the forests of the Northeast and the Lake States, where timber supplies have already been seriously de- pleted, and where, considering the remaining stands, the pulp and paper industry is already seriously overdeveloped.
Until the abnormal demands, short supplies, and resulting prices of the past few months led to increased newsprint pro- duction through the utilization of plants designed for and for- merly used in making other kinds of paper, there had been no expansion in the newsprint industry In the United States since 1909. The demands for newsprint paper had, however, been increasing by leaps and bounds. In 1899 our consumption amounted to 509,000 tons. In 1918 it had reached 1,760,000 tons, an increase of approximately 200 per cent. Per capita consump- tion of 3 pounds per person In the United States in 1880- had increased to 33 pounds per person in 1919. With an increase of 11 times in 40 years, rapidly increasing requirements between 1909 and 1919, and very little increase in production, imports were obviously necessary.
Before taking up the extent to which the United States Is supplying its domestic requirements, the importance of the conn- try's being on an independent basis so far as newsprint pro- duction and the necessary raw materials are concerned should be briefly considered. Dependence upon foreign sources for pulp wood or pulp newsprint exposes the American consumer to the danger of price control. He must also reckon with the pos- sibility of embargo, which even now is far from being a theo- retical menace. All exports of pulp wood are prohibited from the colony of Newfoundland. The Canadian Provinces have pro- hibited the export of pulp wood from crown lauds, which form a very considerable extent of the timberlands both in eastern and western Canada. For a year or more American manufac- turers have been apprehensive concerning the possibility of em- bargo on all pulp- wood exports from Canada. It would unques- tionably be desirable to make the United States as nearly self- supporting as possible.
In lumber the United States is still an exporting country, but in pulp wood, pulp, and newsprint we have become large importers. From being self-supporting in newsprint production as late as 1909 the United States had, in 1919, 10 years later,
28
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
become dependent upon foreign sources for approximately two- thirds of our newsprint or its raw material.
The factors which have held our newsprint industry prac- tically at a standstill in the face of rapidly growing domestic requirements are pertinent in a study of timber depletion. The various requirements of paper making have restricted the num- ber of species which have, gone into newsprint paper, and inci- dentally into all kinds of pulp and paper, very largely to four, of which spruce supplied 55 per cent of the total pulp manu- factured in 1917, hemlock 16, balsam 7, and poplar 6, a total of 84 per cent from four species. The overcentralization of the industry in the Northeast and Lake States and the consequently serious overcutting of the timber in these regions is due in no small degree to this restricted use and the occurrence of these species chiefly in New England and the Lake States.
The lumber industry has followed the timber, but a much smaller investment per unit of output is required in the lumber mill than in the pulp and paper plant. On a prewar basis an investment of approximately $1,500 per thousand board feet of daily product is required in lumber manufacture, whereas pulp and paper establishments require approximately $50,000 per thousand feet of daily consumption. Large investments have therefore tended to hold the pulp and paper industry in the regions in which it was first established, and timber has been hauled increasing distances to the mills. A rail and water transport exceeding 500 miles is now not uncommon.
When overdevelopment of the American industry in the Northeast and the Lake States, as compared with timber sup- plies within our own borders, prevented further development, and when Canada begaij to take measures to withhold pulp wood for the upbuilding of a home industry, new construction to meet growing demands shifted to the other side of the international boundary, where it was welcomed by the Canadian and the various provincial governments. Since 1909, the year which marked the suspension in American development, Canadian production has increased from 150,000 tons to 800,000 tons, or approximately 433 per cent.
The depletion of supplies in the Lake States is clearly indi- cated in the rapidly increasing distances from which the pulp and paper mills find it necessary to secure their material. A repre- sentative of one of the purchasing companies which supplies a large number of the Wisconsin mills reports that in 1904 sup- plie,s were largely obtained within the State. Five years ago it had become necessary to go far north into Minnesota, but it was rarely necessary to ship material from points more than 50 miles north of Duluth. At the present time, however, a very material part of the supply is secured from the extreme north- ern part of the State. Spruce from Minnesota is now being hauled from 700 to 750 miles by railroad to the Wisconsin mills, and from Canada up to distances of 1,000 and 1,200 miles. The situation has become so critical that the Wisconsin mills are seriously considering the possibility of securing their raw mate- rials from the Rocky Mountain region of Montana. For hem- lock the paper industry must compete with the lumber industry for logs of saw timber size, and, unfortunately, from the stand- point of future supplies, the cut now includes a very consider- able amount of material obtained from trees under saw timber diameters.
It is reported from New York, where nearly 50 per cent of our domestic newsprint production is now centered, that 60 per cent of the pulp and paper mills have absolutely no timber supplies of their own. For these mills there seems to be little ahead except closing in a comparatively few years. At least 60 per cent of the remaining spruce pulp wood in New York is in the State preserves, on which no cutting is allowed.
In New Hampshire the coniferous pulp wood has been cut vecy heavily, and 10 or 12 years will probably see the end of the supply. Aside from the State preserve in New York, the bulk of the remaining coniferous pulp wood of the East is
located in Maine. One of the best supplied pulp and paper companies in the State has holdings which at the present rate of cutting various estimates give a life of from 40 to 60 years. Holdings of another large company are estimated at about 20 years; of still another at 15 or 16 years. There are about 15 mills which have no lands of their own and which will probably have difficulty in purchasing material within 10 years.
The pulp and paper mills of the Northeast in general are be- coming more and more dependent upon Canadian wood. So far as known, no company in the Northeast has sufficient hold- ings under present methods of management to guarantee any- thing approaching a continuous supply. Probably not over six companies control or own timberlands with supplies for more than 20 years.
The drain upon the forests for newsprint is very heavy. One large daily, for example, which consumes 20,000 tons a year, requires for that brief period the product of a century's growth on 7,500 acres of eastern spruce forest.
The present situation from the standpoint of timber supplies in the eastern United States for the newsprint industry is therefore very unfavorable, and the future holds no particular promise. The supplies already limited are being rapidly cut; many mills are already without timber of their own ; the stands in eastern Canada have apparently been very much overesti- mated in the past ; and little concerted effort has yet been made to increase the production of pulp woods in the North- east, where the industry is at present centered. Only such effort, together with the development of the industry in the West and in Alaska, where there are still large stands of timber suitable for newsprint paper, can assure production in the United States which will even approximate domestic require- ments. The situation as to other classes of paper is somewhat similar, although it may not yet be so serious, and is usually of less importance from the standpoint of public welfare. ALASKAN SUPPLIES OF PULPWOOD.
Alaskan timber is so important from a national pulp-wood standpoint that it can not be allowed to pass without special comment. The timber, which is of particular interest, is on the Tongass National Forest in southeast Alaska.
While much of this timber is of saw-timber size and will in the future become increasingly valuable for lumber, it is be- lieved that its real future is for pulp and paper. The stands are largely western hemlock and Sitka spruce, species now in use on the Pacific coast for newsprint and other paper manu- facture. It is estimated that there are in the Tongass Na- tional Forest in the neighborhood of 70 billion feet board measure, in a comparatively narrow belt along the 12,000 miles or more of coast line. Water power is available, as is also deep- water transportation from numerous mill sites. This timber is for sale under practical and favorable terms and in amounts sufficiently large to justify the installation of plants. Since it is in a National Forest it will be cut under methods which will insure permanence of production.
It is estimated that the cut from this region alone will insure a perpetual supply large enough to meet one-half of the present newsprint requirements qf the United States. There seems to be no reason why southeastern Alaska, situated in practically the same latitude as Norway and Sweden, should not become the center of a large pulp and paper industry which will be a source -of local prosperity and of great national im- portance in the light of our present dependence upon foreign pulp and paper production. Alaska, in other words, is one of the centers to which the newsprint industry of the United States should look for a large future development. The same is true of other centers in the West, where immense sources of pulp wood supply are now almost wholly undeveloped. Much of this timber is in the National Forests.
TIMBER DEPLETION-, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
29
THE MOVEMENT OF PRICES.
Figure 2 shows the trend of pulp-wood prices In New England and contract newsprint prices ;md consumption in the United States since 1899. Spot market prices are shown for 1919 and 1920. Competition among American mills and between the American and Canadian product kept down the contract price of newsprint until 1910. In spite of the increasing cost of pulp wood. Another factor in keeping prices of newsprint down was tho introduction of cheaper methods of manufacture, the effect of which \\as, in part, at least, tn help to reduce prices between 1900 and 1909.
The general contract price level as represented by 100 per cent is $2 per hundred pounds. This price level obtained until in 1916 the increased demand for newsprint outstripped pro- duction, and competition among purchasers for inadequate sup- plies succeeded that among producers to dispose of their pro- duct. Increasing demands and growing competition among newspapers forced contract prices up to $4.50 in 1920. The
k
I
1399
I9OO
teos
'cf
>^
« Jl?
Ws^ /, I9ZO^ 7
«;
1910
1915
/920
FIG. 2. — Rise of consumption and selling prices of newsprint in the United States and of the price of pulpwood In New England, 1899-1920.
curve as it stands does not take one important factor into ac- count. I'rior to the war the contract price was f. o. b. point of consumption, but during the war contract prices were changed to f. o. b. paper mill.
Spot market prices are shown only during 1919 and 1920, because prior to that time they are rot available as separate quotations. In general, however, spot market prices before the war followed contract prices closely, and at times were even below them.
Prior to the war a relatively small percentage of the total newsprint consumption was handled on the spot-market basis. The larger newspapers particularly secured all, or practically all, of their supplies under contract. During the last year the larger newspapers have found it increasingly difficult to secure all of their supplies under contract, and have been forced to secure the remainder in the .open market. It is in the open market that the full effect of competition for inadequate sup- plies is shown, and this is reflected in the much higher prices.
It is here that the speculative element In the handling of a necessary commodity at a time of shortage is fully brought into play. Unfortunately il is upon the spot market that the smaller newspapers, least able to increase returns by increasing adver- tising material and raising their advertising rates, must depend. The depletion of timber supplies is first shown in competi- tion for pulp wood and steadily increasing prices. Competition among producers for the sale of their product resulted for a considerably longer period in keeping newsprint prices at a fairly constant level. Only when the available timber sup- lilies of the regions in which the newsprint industry had been developed became so short as to prevent normal additions to plant capacity and demand for newsprint exceeded its pro- duction did newsprint prices advance. Depletion has resulted since 1899 in a large increase in both pulp-wood and newsprint prices. It is merely the time when and rate at which the increase took place that has varied.
NAVAL STORES SUPPLIES.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUSTRY.
So pronounced is depletion of the timber upon which our naval-stores industry depends for its supplies that it is com- monly regarded as a dying industry in the United States. In colonial days, when the wooden shipbuilding industry of New England was of great importance, naval stores for domestic consumption, as well as for export, were secured from the pitch pine from Maine to New Jersey. The present-day naval-stores industry dates back also to early colonial times, but uses the longleaf and slash pines of the South.
The very name of the industry is no longer appropriate, since the bulk of its products— spirits of turpentine and rosin— are largely used for purposes having no connection with shipping. They are important constituents in such products as soap, paint and varnish, paper sizing, printing ink, greases, oils and belt dressing, soldering flux, shoe polishes, roofing and linoleum, fly paper, sealing wax, electrical supplies, matches, and various articles in the drug trade. The annual products of the industry exceed $40,000,000 in value, more than half of which comes fronr exports. Since the Civil War it has held a place among the industries of the South inferior only to agriculture and lumbering. Since 1820, or in fact since statistics of any value are available, American production has led the world, and even at the present time is approximately 80 per cent of the total world production.
For the South as a whole, production has been falling off for a number of years. From slightly less than 34,000,000 gallons of turpentine in 1899, the first year of satisfactory statistics, it declined to approximately 17,000,000 gallons in 1918, a de- crease of 50 per cent. Rosin production during the same period fell a proportionate amount.
The average production of the last six years has been 25,000,- 000 gallons of spirits of turpentine and 834,000,000 pounds of rosin, a production which has been easily absorbed by the world's industries.
REMAINING SUPPLIES.
A study of the opinions and estimates of a number of the best- informed men in the industry, men representing every part of the territory and having more than ordinary means of informa- tion, indicates that there are not more than 31,000 crops of turpentine timber available and uncupped in the naval stores territory to-day. From this amount of timber it is estimated that not more than 166,000,000 gallons of turpentine and 5,000,- 000,000 pounds of rosin can be produced. In addition to the uncufcped supply of timber, that which lias been or is now being worked will probably yield 60,000,000 gallons of spirits of turpentine and 1,900,000,000 pounds of rosin, making the total available supply 226,000,000 gallons of spirits of tur-
30
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICKS, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
pentine and 6,900,(XK),000 pounds of rosin. Our own markets and export demands will, it is believed, absorb 25,000.000 gallons of spirits and 825,000,000 pounds of rosin annually. At this rate the supply of timber now in sight would be exhausted in less than 10 years. It will actually be extended beyond this period by the production of wood turpentine and rosin and also by the gradual falling off in the rate of production as the re- maining timber supplies become exhausted. The indications are, however, that the production of gum naval stores in the southern pine belt will within 10 years have been reduced to such an extent that export markets and even our own must look elsewhere for their main supplies.
The naval stores industry of the South has migrated from State to State, following the timber. North Carolina, where now production is negligible, was for many years the leading State. South Carolina has been practically abandoned by the industry for more than 20 years. Rising prices have induced a few operators to go hack over the territory to work scattered second-growth stands and isolated patches of virgin timber, but it seems probable that these supplies will be exhausted within four years. Well-informed men in the industry believe that in from four to six years under present demands Georgia will take its place with North and South Carolina as an insignificant factor in production.
Florida has been the mainstay of naval stores production during the last 10 years, but the end of its supply is definitely in sight. Of late the value of its product has been more than twice as much as that of any other State, and nearly half the value of the naval stores produced in all Southern States. Fairly accurate data on the resources of Florida have been compiled by some of the large naval stores interests. This in- formation, checked by estimates of well-informed operators in various parts of the State, indicates that at the current rate of production Florida can not hold its own for more than eight years. That the State will soon be brought to the position of North and South Carolina and Georgia is improbable, since a very considerable portion of the remaining timber is held by strong corporations in large, well-blocked bodies, and it is to be expected that exploitation will be more conservative and less wasteful and hurried. It is the opinion of the well-informed men in the Florida industry that not more than 5.000 crops of uncupped timber available for operation remain in the State.
Much of the longleaf and slash pine of Alabama has already been worked, and the greater portion of the remaining stand of uncupped timber is in the hands of large lumber companies. Turpentine operators, judging from the present rate of lumber- ing, foresee a possible increase in production for the next three years, followed by a very rapid reduction. They believe that the State will be practically eliminated as a large producer of naval stores within five years. General opinion places remain- ing stands at not more than 1,000 crops, including all second growth now merchantable.
Well-informed observers believe that Mississippi will show an increase in production during the next four or five years. The timber, however, both here and in Louisiana and Texas, is largely owned by lumbermen who will force a rapid exploita- tion for naval stores in order that the lumbering may not be delayed. Five thousand crops of uncupped timber are esti- mated. It is predicted that the crest of production will have been passed within five years, and that this will lie followed by a rapid decline. Within eight years Mississippi will not be a leading State in naval-stores production.
The industry is comparatively new in Louisiana. The timber is largely held by lumbermen who excluded naval-stores opera- tions very generally until four or five years ago. Much of the timber has been and some of it is still being cut unturpentined. The average turpentine lease on many of these large holdings does not exceed two years in length. Of the 27 billion feet of
longleaf pine in Louisiana the removal of 20 billion feet for lumber is predicted during the next 10 years. A yield of not to exceed i;t,."i(»o crop* is anticipated. Operators familiar with the situation agree that 10 years will probably see the beginning of a very rapid decline in production from Louisiana, and .15 years the end of the present supply.
Sawmills will probably remove 7,500 million feet of the 11 billion feet of longlenf pine in Texas during the next 10 years. and Texas is the last stand of the turpentine industry in the South. N:ival-stores production in Texas will be increased rap- idly as the Eastern States are exhausted, but operations will be seriously curtailed by the desire of timber owners to exploit the stands for lumber. The naval-stores industry estimates that there are not more than 4,000 crops in Texas and predicts practical exhaustion within 10 years.
METHODS OF EXPLOITATION.
While the rate of depletion of the supply of naval-stores tim- ber has been greatly accelerated during the last few years by the rapid cutting of timber controlled by lumber interests, the naval-stores operators themselves are responsible for the fact that what was once the largest and finest naval-stores forest in existence is about to become a matter of history. The method of exploitation commonly followed during the last hundred years is crude, wasteful, destructive, and sadly shortsighted. I'nder the driving urge of maximum financial returns in a mini- mum of time, regardless of after effects, turpentine orchards even to-day are operated so destructively that the trees are ex- hausted in from four to six years and turned over to the saw- mill man showing a loss due to turpentining of from 20 to 50 per cent.
That quick exhaustion of the turpentine productivity of the tree, and, in many cases, its early destruction, is not a necessity in the production of naval stores is shown by the French naval- stores industry. For the last 80 years a system of operation has been followed in France that permits an orchard to be worked for turpentine for from 30 to 50 years, practically with- out loss of timber. Coupled with this admirable system of opera- tion is a plan of management under which a crop of new timber is continually growing into maturity to till the gap left by the harvesting of mature timber. As a result of such foresight the French supply of naval stores is increasing yearly, both in value and in amount.
Conservative methods of turpentining in southern pine forests have1 been developed by the Forest Service and are now in com- mercial use on the Florida National Forest, and on private holdings of some of the more progressive operators. Inertia, not financial obstacles, must be regarded as the chief reason why these conservative methods have not been more generally employed. They make entirely possible, when combined with intelligent forest management, a permanent as against a self- destroying industry.
DEPLETION AND PRICES.
As in the case of lumber and newsprint, the sujierficial cause of abnormal prices is a combination of abnormal demand and shortage of I he manufactured product. The stocks of turpen- tine and rosin at the chief points of concentration were lower at the end of the last naval-stores season than has been the case in many years. At the same time the demand, both foreign and domestic, has been stronger than at any other lime during the past five years. The natural result has been keen c;ompet it ion for supplies on hand and consequent rise in prii-e. As in the case of lumber and other industries, there have been increased costs. It has been difficult to secure ade- quate supplies of skilled labor. Credit inflation alone would have increased prices, but the fundamental difficulty has been the depletion of the timber supplies from which naval stores
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
31
pnn be secured and tin- great limitation cif the prod-.icing regions already discussed. The priee of spirits of turpentine, which for very many years fluctuated slightly above and below 50 cents R gallon, had risen nearly five times to a price of $2.30 early in 1020, and similar increases occurred in prices for various (trades of rosin.
With a prospective reduction in domestic production, the 1'uited Slates is facinjt in the near future rapidly decreasing ability to export naval stores products, and even within a few years to meet home demands from the southern pine territory. There are possibilities of development of the industry with other species in the West, but under much more adverse con- ditions as t.o accessibility, labor, etc. The, only other possi- bilities are imports or the use of substitutes.
ORIGINAL AND PRESENT FORESTS OF THE UNITED STATES.
ORIGINAL FOREST AREA.
The original forest area of the country is estimated to have been in the neighborhood of X±_>,000,000 acres. (See Table 3 and tig. 3.") In the eastern 1'nited States a magnificent forest
"Various terms found in those and other acconinanving tables and figures are used with the following meanings:
" Saw-tlmher areas" ami "saw-timber stands" are stands of saw- timber size in accordance with the prevailing logging and milling prac- tice of the region concerned.
New
of old-growth timber, wonderfully rich in variety of species and quality of material, stretched in an almost unbroken ex- panse from the Atlantic Ocean to the prairies. Fines and other softwoods predominated in the north and along the Atlantic and (!ulf coasts, while in the Appalachians and on the fertile soils of the Central States and the lower Mississippi Valley
" Cordwood areas" and " cordwood stands" are stands not now of Millieient sine I" produce snw timber under the prevailing local logging and milling practice.
" Nonrcstocking areas " comprise lands that once supported a stand of timber, which is now gone, and which is not being renewed.
"Virgin arc:is" and "virgin stands" comprise stands In which tbere is no net growth, such growth as takes place being offset by loss from decay and other causes. This excludes certain old-growth stands, ;is, for example, in California, which have not been lumbered and are ordinarily resided .is "virgin" forests, but In which a net growth Is now taking place a.s a result of the present protection of such stands following their opening up by fire.
" Growing areas " and " growing stands " Include all stands, Irre- spective of their size, in which current growth is in excess of current loss: that is, in which there is a net growth.
" Saw timber " comprises that portion of the stand on saw timber areas of sufficient size for manufacture into lumber. Board feet esti- mates of saw timber are given in terms of lumber tally rather than log scale.
" Cordwood ' comprises that portion of the stand on saw-timber areas not of sufficient size for manufacture into lumber and the entire stand on cordwood areas. It may thus include occasional trees of saw-timber size which occur in cordwood stands but not in sufficient quantity to be lumbered.
" Total stand " Includes both saw timber and cordwood.
M/dcf/e Atlantic
Lake Centra/
S. Atlantic]
and \
EastGu/f I
Lower ( M/ssiss/ppk.
Rocky Moitnta/ns
Pac/f/c Coast*
Origina/ Forest Area Present Y/rg/n Forest Area | I Remainder ofpresent Forest Area
Comp/ete data for th/s r eg ton nofavail- ab/e- present total Forest A rea probe b/y some 5 mil '/ '/on acres more than /nd/catea
80 /OO
Mil lion Acres
FIG. 3.— Original and present forest areas of the United States by regions.
/6O
32
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
onk, hickory, ash, chestnut, yellow poplar, and other valuable hardwoods abounded. In the West practically all of the area not too arid to support tree growth was also covered with a forest of virgin timber interspersed with occasional patches of younger, even-aged stands, as of Douglas fir and western white pine, following fire. Along the Pacific coast the heavy stands of redwood, Douglas fir, western hemlock, and western red cedar formed one of the finest forests in the world.
PRESENT FOREST AREA.
To-day of the original forest area there remains but little more than half or approximately 463,000,000 acres, excluding in both cases from 100 to 150 million acres of low-grade wood- land and scrub. (See Table 4 and fig. 4.) Furthermore, so far has the utilization of the original forest progressed that of the total remaining area only 30 per cent, or 137 million acres, is virgin forest. The remainder includes 112 million acres of second-growth saw timber, 133 million acres of second growth below saw-timber size, and 81 million acres which are not restocking. Gutting has naturally been heaviest in the most fertile and most densely populated sections of the country. Thus in the Central States the original forest has been reduced to one-third of its former extent, while in the Rocky Mountains 95 per cent of it still remains. More than half of the virgin forests of the country are in the Western States, only 15 per cent of the virgin forest area being in- cluded in the Northern and Central States. Over nearly a fifth of the present forest area the original timber growth is not being renewed. The largest areas of nonrestocking land are in northern New England, Pennsylvania, the northern Lake States, the pine lands of the South Atlantic and Gulf States, and parts of the Pacific coast States.
TABLE 3. — Original and present forest areas in the United States by regions.
|
Region. |
Original. |
Present. |
|
|
Total. |
Virgin. |
||
|
New England |
Acres. 38,908,000 69,610,000 103,580,000 170,560,000 170,240,000 128,400,000 63,720,000 77,120,000 |
Acres. 24,708,000 28,678,000 57,100,000 56,682,000 99,000,000 78,865,000 60,842,000 57,586,000 |
Acres. 2,000,000 1,896,000 10,100,000 7,150,000 18,300,000 20,835,000 37,746,000 39,369,000 |
|
Middle Atlantic |
|||
|
Lake |
|||
|
Central |
|||
|
South Atlantic and East Gulf |
|||
|
Rocky Mountain |
|||
|
Total |
|||
|
822,238,000 |
463,461,000 |
137,396,000 |
|
TABLE 4. — Present forest area of the United States by regions and character of growth.
|
Region. |
Total (thou- sand acres.) |
Per cent. |
Saw timber (thousand acres). |
Cord- wood (thou- sand acres). |
Non- restock- in(! (thou- sand acres.) |
|
Virgin. 2,000 1,896 10,100 7,150 18,300 20,835 37, 746 39,369 |
Grow- ing. |
||||
|
24, 708 28,678 57,100 56,682 99,000 78,865 60,842 57,586 |
! 12 12 22 17 13 13 |
8,761 9,559 13,930 23,301 27,900 20,200 3,313 5,292 |
8,372 10, 793 12,570 24,011 32,080 24,075 14,533 6,425 |
5,678 6,430 20,500 2,220 20,720 13,755 5,250 6,500 |
|
|
Middle Atlantic |
|||||
|
Central |
|||||
|
South Atlantic and East Gulf |
|||||
|
Total |
|||||
|
463,461 |
100 |
137,396 |
112,256 |
132, 859 |
80,950 |
1 Complete data for this region not available; total forest area probably some 5,000,000 acres more than indicated.
TABLE 5. — Stand of saw timber in the United States by regions.
|
Region. |
Saw-tim- ber area (thousand acres). |
Total saw timber. |
Softwood (jnillinn board feet). |
Hard- wood (million board feet). |
|
|
Million board feet. |
Per cent. |
||||
|
10, 761 11,455 24,030 30,451 46,200 41,035 41,059 44,661 |
49,799 44,857 110,110 14-1,470 220,577 280,908 223, 141 1,141,031 |
2 2 5 7 10 13 10 51 |
38,480 15,353 40, 760 11,318 136,827 148,308 223, 141 1,141,031 |
11,319 29,504 69,350 133,152 83.750 132,600 |
|
|
Middle Atlantic . . |
|||||
|
Lake |
|||||
|
Central |
|||||
|
South Atlantic and East Gulf. . . |
|||||
|
Rocky Mountain |
|||||
|
Total |
|||||
|
249,652 |
2,214,893 |
100 |
1,755,218 |
459,675 |
|
SAW-TIMBER STANDS.
The original stand of saw timber has been estimated at not less than 5,200 billion board feet. In the light of the cut that has already been obtained, and of present standards of utiliza- tion, it is probable that the actual stand was considerably larger. Even taking the lower figure, however, less than half of the original stand, or 2,215 billion board feet, still remains (see Table 5 and fig 5). Of this some 1,755 billion feet is softwoods and 460 billion feet hardwoods. Approximately 70 per cent of the total stand, including the best and most acces- sible timber, Is in private ownership, while about 498 billion board feet, or 22 per cent, is included in the National Forests. States and municipalities together hold only 59 billion board
3 aw rtmoer areas Cordn/ood areas
too
, some f,,e fr>,H,on acres more Ma
FIG. 4,-Forest areas of the United States by
and character of growth.
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
33
New England
Middle Atlantic
Lake Centra/.
B| SQFTWOO&S
1 HARDWOODS
Jmrrfi Atlantic and Gulf,
Lower
Rocky Mountain.
Ptutit Coast- -
JOO 600
BILLION BOARD
FIG. 5. — Stand of saw timber In the United States by regions.
1100
1200
feet, or less than 3 per cent of the total. (See Table 6 and fig 6.)
The exhaustion of the eastern forests and the steady progress of the lumber industry toward the West Is well Indicated by the location of the remaining stands of sawtimber. Thus, New England, the Middle Atlantic, Central, and Lake States, with 35 per cent of the total forest area, contain only 349 billion board feet, or 16 per cent of the total ; while the Pacific Coast Sinlcs, with only 13 per cent of the forest area, contain 1,141 billion board feet, or nearly 52 per cent of the total. (See lig 7.) Between those two extremes come the South At- lantic, Kast Culf, and Lower Mississippi Slates, with 39 per cent of the forest area and 23 per cent of the sawtimber; and the Rocky Mountain States, with 13 per cent of the forest area and 10 per cent of the sawtimber. Altogether, 61 per cent of the present stand of sawtimber lies west of the Great Plains.
In other words, the depletion of our eastern forest resources has now reached the point where the softwood stands in the Northern and Central States can no longer contribute any large proportion of the total softwood lumber consumption of the country, wiiere the Southern States are losing the command- ing position that they have held for the last 20 or 30 years, and where the one great reservoir of softwood timber still left lies on the Pacific coast, chiefly In the Pacific Northwest. Douglas fir, with an estimated total stand of 596 billion board feet, approximately 85 per cent of which is in the two States n( Washington and Oregon, is the principal species in the West. (See Table 7 and fig. 8.) Western yellow pine is a fair second, with a total stand of 250 billion board feet, 27 per cent of which is in the Rocky Mountains and 73 per cent on the Pacific coast. Following these two species, which together com-
prise nearly half of the softwood sawtimber in the entire coun- try, come western hemlock, the true firs, and redwood, with stands of 95, 91, and 72 billion board feet, respectively.
TABLE 6. — Ownership of forest area and stand of taictimber in the United States by regions.
AREA.
|
Region. |
Total. |
Federal. |
State, and munic- ipal. |
Private. |
||
|
Total. |
National Forest. |
Total. |
Farm wood lots. |
|||
|
Eastern United States Rocky Mountains |
Thou- sand acres. :u.-., tm «0,842 57,586 |
Thou- sand acrts. 5,678 51,681 30,319 |
Thou- sand acres. 4,578 48,281 26,876 |
Thou- sand acres. 4,300 1,411 1,475 |
Thou- sand acres. 335,155 7,750 25,792 |
Thou- >and acres. 152,465 | |
|
Pacific Coast |
||||||
|
Total |
||||||
|
463,461 |
87,578 |
79,735 |
7,186| 368,697 |
|||
STAND.
|
Million |
Million |
Million |
Million |
Million |
trillion |
|
|
board |
board |
board |
board |
board |
board |
|
|
Eastern United States |
feet. 850,721 223 141 |
feel. 8,184 157 618 |
feet. 4,184 145 449 |
feet. 10,000 |
feet. 832,537 |
feet. 340,288 |
|
Pacific Coast |
1 141 031 |
411 'UNI |
IMS IHHI |
M |
||
|
Total |
2,214,893 |
fiCKI IO'' |
497 633 |
58 791 |
||
' Not indicated because of lack of data.
In the East the only softwood with a stand comparable to any of these is southern yellow pine, with a total of 258 billion board feet, or slightly more than western yellow pine. (See Table 7 and fig 8.) Spruce and fir come next, with a stand
Eastern U.S.
Rocky Mountains Pacific Coast
50
100
ISO ZOO
AREA — MILLION ACRES
250
3SO
|
Eastern U.S. Ftochy Mountains Pacific CoasT C |
|||||||||||||||
|
• |
1 |
||||||||||||||
|
— |
•^ — ' ^••±±1 — |
D |
|||||||||||||
|
IOO ZOO 30O 4QO 500 60O 700 BOO 9OO IOOO IIOO I2OO 1300 I4QQ |
STAND -BILLION 3d. Ft.
National Forest 03 Farm Wood lots in Eastern U.S. Other Public
(Not estimated for western U.S.) Other Private
PIG. 6. — Ownership of forest area and stand of saw timber in the United States by regions.
186212—20 5
34
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
of 32 billion board feet, followed by hemlock, white and Norway pine, and bald cypress. The stand of these six species together is considerably less than half as much as the stand of southern yellow pine, and is only 6 per cent of the total si and of softwoods. The total saw-timber stand of white pine, once regarded as " inexhaustible," is now less than the amount estimated to have been manufactured into lumber in either the Saginaw Valley or at Muskegon, Mich., and less than one-fifth of the total estimated cut from the State of Michigan.
Of the hardwoods the only large reservoirs of virgin timber still left are in the Lake Slate, the Southern Appalachians, and the lower Mississippi Valley. The first two of these contain, respectively, about 3:2 and 53 billion feet of old growth. There is also a considerable total stand of hardwoods, estimated at approximately 133 billion board feet, in the Central States out- side of the Appalachians, but this is composed chiefly of second- growth material in widely scattered wood lots, and can not be counted on to contribute any large proportion of high-class material to the hardwood industries. Oak is easily the lead- ing hardwood of the country, with a total stand of 157 billion board feet, followed by the three northern hardwoods — birch, beech, and maple — having together 91 billion board feet. (See Table 7 and fig. 8.) Three of the most valuable hardwoods — hickory, ash, and yellow poplar — together have an estimated stand of only 35 billion board feet, or less than 2 per cent of the total stand. That the depletion of the hardwood supply of the country has progressed even further than that of the softwoods is indicated by the fact that the hardwoods consti- tute only about 20 per cent of the saw-timber stand, as against nearly 30 per cent of the saw-timber cut. Moreover, the deple- tion is particularly marked in the case of the more valuable woods.
While the cordwood forms more than one-third of the total volume of standing timber, less than one-sixth of the total is on the cordwood areas, which average only about 850 cubic feet to
New England. .
Middle Atlantic
Forest Area Sawtrmber -Stand I I Total Stand I I
Fbciffc Coast. _ .
ao Jo
Percent
FIG. 7. — Per cent of total forest area, total saw timber stand, and total stand by regions.
TABLE 7. — Stand of saw ttinbcr in the United States by species and regions. [Quantities in million board feet, lumber tally.)
|
. Species. |
Total. i |
New England. |
Middle Atlantic. |
Lake. |
Central. |
South Atlantic and East Gulf. |
Lower Mississippi. |
Rocky Mountain. |
Pacific coast. |
|
Eastern hardwoods |
459, 675 |
11,319 |
29,504 |
69,350 |
133, 152 |
83,750 |
132,600 |
||
|
Oak |
157 372 |
1 510 |
|||||||
|
Birch, beech, and maple |
90,784 |
8 143 |
16 897 |
36 076 |
|||||
|
lied fium Chestnut |
44,222 19 319 |
176 |
3,728 |
13, 400 |
26,918 |
||||
|
Hickorv Cottonwood and aspen |
15, 784 10, 824 |
40 374 |
412 13 |
187 |
6,791 |
3,183 |
5,171 |
||
|
Ash |
9 988 |
215 |
|||||||
|
Yellow poplar Others |
9,611 101,771 |
77 |
126 2,113 |
7 21,887 |
5,193 111. 174 |
4,020 21,524 |
265 36,996 |
||
|
Eastern softwoods |
391,046 |
38,480 |
15,353 |
40,760 |
11,318 |
136,827 |
148,308 |
||
|
Southern yellow pine. |
257, 691 |
||||||||
|
He mlock Spruce and fir. ... Cypress White and Norway pine Others Western softwoods |
30,S96 31,572 22, 921 23,457 24,509 |
1,804 23,971 9.816 2,889 |
5,036 2,948 4,037 '3,332 |
18,301 3,772 8,000 10, 687 |
3,910 515 i 6, 528 |
1,845 881 11,208 1,089 362 |
11.713 711 |
||
|
Douglas fir Western yellow pine and Jeffrey pine. Western hemlock Trueflrs Redwood Western white pine and sugar pine . . . Western red cedar . . Lodsepole pine |
595,505 249,578 95, 092 91,349 72,208 57, 071 -,:',,:( is 43,919 |
|
39,934 6S-, 125 1,092 8,870 ""is.'sse" 4,348 39 353 |
558,571 94,000 «. I7'.i 72,208 38,485 •19. IKK) 4,566 |
|||||
|
Suniec Others.... |
39,822 66,280 |
26,467 21,366 |
13,351 41,914 |
1 Includes small amounts of various species of yellow pine.
TOTAL STAND.
The total volume of standing timber in the country, includ- ing both saw timber and cordwood, is estimated roughly at 746 billion cubic feet. Of this. 485 billion cubic feet is saw timber and 261 billion cubic feet cordwood, (See Table 8 and fig. 9.)
the aero. This low average is in itself a striking indication of failure to secure a satisfactory restocking of our cut and burned over forest lands. This failure will have increasingly serious consequences, as depletion of the old-growth forests makes us more and more dependent on second-growth timber.
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
O IOO ?OO JOO 4OO 5OO 6OO 'OO BOO 3OO IOOO -tOO HOO /6OO
35
fooo feoo
f5 Tfff/V SOFTWOODS
BILLION BOARD
Via. 8. — Saw-timber si a nils of some of the more Important species in the United States.
TAUI.K S. — Total
in cubic feet on fair-timber areas and in the United States by regions.
|
Region. |
Total stand. |
Stand on — • |
||
|
Million cubic teet. |
Per cent. |
Saw tim- ber areas (million cubic feet). |
Cordwood areas 1 InilllliM cubic feet). |
|
|
20,850 24,897 50,684 85,118 96,158 118,304 61,893 287,724 |
3 3 7 11 13 16 8 39 |
15,492 17, 120 41,534 61,319 73,060 95,252 53,755 274,874 |
5,358 7,771 9,050 23,799 23,098 23,112 8,138 12,850 |
|
|
Middle Atlantic |
||||
|
Lake |
||||
|
Central |
||||
|
Pacific coast |
||||
|
Total |
745,588 |
100 |
632,412 |
113,176 |
LOCATION OF REQUIREMENTS WITH REFERENCE TO PRODUCTION AND SUPPLIES.
In the comparatively near future all of our eastern timber regions which do not already import more lumber than they export will begin to do so.
The southern pine region as already shown is still a large exporter, but within 10 years production promises to be little,
if any, in excess of local requirements. In New England total consumption probably passed total output between 1880 and 1890, and within a few years this section will meet half of its total requirements from outside sources. New York has not produced lumber in excess of its own needs since a few years before the Civil War. The Pittsburgh district alone probably uses more lumber than is now cut in the entire State of Penn- sylvania, and the State ceased to .be an Important exporter shortly after 1890. The Lake States as a whole still produce more lumber than they consume, but already Michigan and Wisconsin are net importers and it is practically certain that the Lake States as a whole will consume more lumber than they produce within 10 years. Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois since records have been kept have always imported more lumber than they produced. West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee were probably net exporters for about 20 years after 1890, but if thrown together with Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois, they form a group which lias always used more lumber than it produced. No lumber-producing region in the East can with certainty be counted on to produce more lumber in 1930 than it will con- sume. The southern Mississippi Valley and possibly the south- ern Appalachian Mountains may produce more hardwood lumber than is needed locally, but they also are likely to be net im- porters if all classes of lumber are considered.
r a/icf Lower- M/SSI3SI0P'
~J Sfand on cor-c/ivooc/ ar
75 ^00 I2S 'SO '75 200 ZZ.S 2&O
FK;. ft.— Totnl stand in cubic feet on saw-timber areas and cordwood areas In the United States l>y regions.
36
TIMBER DEPLETION, PRICES, EXPORTS, AND OWNERSHIP.
A representative of the National Lumber Manufacturers' As- sociation M has recently predicted a decline in the cut of south- ern pine of 7 billion feet by 1930. and a further decline in other regions in the East of